1) Wonder is getting out the message: "These General Managers and Directors of Player Personnel are simply not ready" for the new time rules that govern this draft. All you have to do is listen to Wonder speak for ~ 2 minutes on the topic to understand why. Your ear goes numb as he rips off 85 things that these GMs have not anticipated. He starts rattling off scenarios at who is available at draft pick #X for team A and then by implication who should be talking to who on Thursday, NOT Friday, and certainly not Saturday when it is TOO LATE. These guys are unprepared. When you think of the myriad angles to plan for, it is very clear these organizations have not planned for them. And now it goes to 10 minutes.
2) Wonder philosophy: (a) he gets a significant amount of his opinion from film (b) he is a VALUE guy. If he knows the consensus #93 pick in the draft is a Future Hall of Famer, he will still go apes**t if HIS team takes him with the 36th pick. "These people do not understand the draft," says Wonder. "You must pick players you like when appropriate, not just because you like them. Not picking for value is easily the most common draft mistake."
3) On Cornerbacks: "Revis and Ross are what the new NFL is all about. Press coverage, bump and run, tackling, bigger and stronger guys."
4) On judging a draft: "You need at least 3 years to judge a draft. Obviously more for a QB. Bryant may be the best NT in this draft and we will need 3 years to judge him. For MLB and RB, all you need is 1 year... either they are good in Year 1 or they don't have it."
5) On the draft/coaches dynamic: "There is a sleeper NT Frank Okum (Texas) who will go in the 5th or 6th Round. He has talent, but was out of shape at the Combine. If he loses 30 lbs. and hits the weight room he could be terrific. If he is taken by a softie like Herm Edwards he'll last 3 days and be out of the league."
6) On rules changes: "The NFL is so cheap.. no 60 year old refs. This 'force out' rule is going to be a nightmare. This covers up pathetic refs who cannot rule on a WR being out or not. The new rule will encourage safeties to drive receivers out of the field of play. Insane. And the 'icing the kicker' is ridiculous and should be banned."
7) On spygate: "Goodell was a moron. Image is everything. The league was made to look very bad. The Patriots should have lost the higher of the 49er/NE #1 pick, so here they are still picking #7."
8) On rookie salaries: Something must be done about rookie salaries in the Top 10 draft picks, because it is ruining the balance that once existed to help weaker teams get first crack at the best talent. Now they have to pay them an exorbitant amount of money, hurting their cap and making it harder for them to KEEP the successful veterans they need on their roster to be competitive. Of course Wonder has a plan for how to bring it all back in line, but if Gene Upshaw and the Players Union continue to be mindless then none of it really matters.
Wait till this afternoon when the actual drafting begins. Wonder is first getting warmed up. 3PM EST.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Inside the mind of a draft guru
Friday, April 25, 2008
Guess who I bumped into?!!
I was at lunch an hour ago with a friend named Brandt, and when we finished we took a walk back to our office. As we passed the Wintergarden at the World Financial Center I spied a few NFL banner flags draped from the second floor, and we decided to check it out. It was the NFL Network interviewing JLong, CLong, McFadden, Dorsey, Gholston and Ryan. They are all HUGE, but Dorsey is ENORMOUS! Jake Long towers above everyone. Unbelievable to have seen them in person. Total accident.
2008 NFL Draft Preview- NY GIANTS ON THE CLOCK
1) NEEDS. The biggest offseason losses were Mitchell and Wilson. So LB and S are the biggest needs. Reese picked up Danny Clark and Sammy Knight to enable FLEXIBILITY in going after as much VALUE as possible. Those acquisitions are not long term answers, so you still have to expect the Giants to target those positions early. Reese is smart- he gets stopgaps so that he can maneuver on draft day.
2) Which returning starter is the WEAKEST LINK on DEFENSE? S James Butler. Butler is an overachieving UFA. While he is a competent tackler, his lack of speed is consistently a liability. The Giants can AND NEED to improve here.
3) Which returning starter is the WEAKEST LINK on OFFENSE? LT David Diehl. It pains me to say this because I am such a huge Illini fan, but I think that makes my objectivity even stronger here. David Diehl is an unbelievable 5th Round draft choice who has not missed a start in FIVE seasons (86 consecutive starts). Great Guard. Weak tackle. Too vulnerable on the edge. Second in the league in sacks allowed in 2007. Abused by Adalius Thomas in the Super Bowl. Reese loves Diehl for his work ethic and durability, but he'll be pragmatic and draft a LT HIGH. VERY HIGH.
4) PICK #31. Ultimatenyg's expert draft analyst is "Wonder." Wonder dissects the first round like this...You can easily see
6 OL (Long, Clady, Albert, Otah, Williams, Cherilus)
2 QB (Ryan, Flacco or more likely Brohm to GB)
3 DT (Dorsey, Ellis, Balmer)
4 DE (Gholston, Long, Merling, Harvey)
5 DB (100% RCromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, combo of 2 from Flowers/Talib/Cason/Phillips)
2 LB (Rivers, Mayo)
4 RB (McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, Jones)
2 TE (Keller, Davis)
4 WR (BUFFALO????+TENN+PHIL+WASH+DAL???? taking Thomas, Sweed, Hardy, Kelly)
That adds up to 33 players for 30 spots before the Giants pick. This means that at worst you could end up with LB Quentin Groves from Auburn or Safety Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State. Wonder loves Groves. There is volatility in the pick but the upside is a total home run, great value at #31. On Johnson, he is a very good pick at #1, he STARTS AT SAFETY ON OPENING DAY and would not be able to get out of the starting lineup for years to come. Two keys before the Giants pick... who does Buffalo take at #11. Wonder thinks it is quite possible that they take WR Devin Thomas, and if they do it is CELEBRATION TIME IN EAST RUTHERFORD, because that means an extra team taking a WR and leaving a great oppty for other players to fall to the Giants. Second key... If Denver does NOT take Mayo it is possible he could fall all the way to the Giants.
The draft is loaded with Offensive Tackles; Gosder Cherilus (Boston College) can fall to #31 simply because there are 5 OLinemen rated above him by consensus.
WR James Hardy (Indiana) may somehow fall to #31, that is another Wonder steal at that slot. Take the tall 6'7" Hardy and now you can definitely trade Shockey, says Wonder. The same argument is even easier to see if TE Keller falls to #31.
5) PICK #63. Wonder has Bryant, Avril, Nicks and Barrett as potentially there and representing value for the Giants at this spot. My favorite is Barrett, because this is a Safety at the right spot and right time. He can get the help of Knight, does not need to be an immediate starter, he's a good quality pick that matches need and lastly you are not wasting a first rounder on a position like Safety. If the Giants are keyed on getting interior DL help (it depends on their outlook for Jay Alford), then Bryant is your answer.
6) PICKS ON DAY 2. Wonder offers the following Day 2 names as players representing value in later rounds: Carl Nicks, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, Cliff Avril, Jeremy Thompson, Kellen Davis, Mike Pollack, Chilo Rachal..one may be available in 3rd round if LUCKY...but..you also have Patrick Lee, Marcus Howard, Justin King (steal !!)...after that you have guys like Tyvon Branch, Donnie Avery, Brad Cottam, Eddie Royal, Jeremy Zuttah, Craig Stevens, Tom Zbikowski, Terrell Thomas...Mike McGlynn...ALL would have great value anytime after round 3...total speculation as what to expect, and who will fall in 5-7....have to wait until AFTER the first day is over to have any clue...
7) There are a few potential first rounders that Wonder says to avoid. They are LT Chris Williams, S Kenny Phillips, LB Dan Connor, WR Desean Jackson, TE Fred Davis and WR Malcolm Kelly.
8) Wonder separately points out a scenario in Round 1 where Oakland picking #4 would choose from Chris Long or Gholston, not care who it is, and let time expire to have the Chiefs pay more at #4 and let the Raiders save cap space too. The Top 10 salaries have gotten so out of hand that it is making a mockery of the 'reward' you get for picking high. Gene Upshaw and the Players Union are awol.
Summary- LB, S, OT are biggest needs. Groves, Johnson, Mayo, Cherilus and Barrett get the Wonder seal of approval for meeting those needs, if they are available.
Live draft coverage on Saturday and Sunday.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Jeremy Shockey trade ???
The rumors and ideas about Shockey getting traded do not let up. It boils down to this- are the Giants a better team with him, OR without him plus a ~high second round draft pick? Let's analyze both camps:
CAMP 1: The Giants are better off with Shockey
1) The Giants got better w/o him because of Smith's return, Bradshaw's entry into the offense and Boss' solid play as his replacement, NOT because of Shockey's exit
2) Boss cannot block nearly as well as Shockey and he certainly is not as good in pass catching
3) The Giants offense was great w/ Manning finding his rhythm and will be unstoppable with Shockey as yet another feature
4) Boss and Shockey are a TWO TIGHT END SET that is scary good, and can give relief to the team if a WR goes down and makes that position a little thinner
5) Sean Payton knows him from his days as an offensive coordinator for the Giants (2002) and wants him for a reason- he is an ALL PRO player for a good reason
6) He is in his prime and under (a very affordable) contract
CAMP 2: The Giants are better off without Shockey
1) Eli played better because he did not have that raving lunatic in the huddle demanding the ball (The Tim Hasselbeck, Elliot W. theory espoused by many)
2) Boss is our new TE... it is inefficient to have two good TEs, so getting a draft pick for Shockey still gives us a TE presence and perhaps defense or an OL to help elsewhere
3) He gets injured often
4) Even when he is not injured he is often playing hurt at less than 100%
5) Gilbride is a moron for misusing him too much as a blocker, so take your losses, admit the inefficiency and let someone else (who expects to use him more efficiently) pay for his services so that everyone wins
6) Get something now for him while you can
7) Shockey has 'allegedly' voiced his frustration with the Giants offense to 'friends,' and you do not need that undermining your team
I asked Wonder about Shockey, and he thought that if the Giants get a tall WR at #31 like Hardy, it makes Shockey very expendable and that he should be moved (assuming they can get a good #2 pick). This makes a scenario unfold where the Giants wait for their #31 pick to arrive, and as soon as they know what position they take it will dictate whether they want the Saints' #2 pick. If the Giants are secretly coveting a WR or TE in R1 (OR, just as importantly if one falls to them value-wise), it would make sense to hold off any Shockey trade until that objective is met. I am in Camp 1.. I do not agree with trading Shockey. But if the Giants do want to move him, they are smart in waiting until the draft to see what other variables they can determine before making that decision.
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Wonder on the warpath
Get ready for Saturday's commentary, because here is taste of the raving Wonder:
"For those GM's who DON'T UNDERSTAND:
1. CINC- gives up #9 and CHAD JOHNSON to
2. RAMS- give up its #2 and their 2nd round pick
WIN, WIN for both teams...yet NO ONE would even suggest it..clueless idiots...85 can't play again in Cinc if they hope to "move on"...and Cinc NEEDS DORSEY...and use extra 2nd round pick for OT, LB, or DE (groves still around ??) and RAMS sure could use 85..!! and they use #9 to draft either Ellis or Clady or Rivers or DRC !!!! AUTOMATIC !!!! I SHOULD BE GM !!!!!"
Update: Allen traded to Vikings
Chiefs trade Allen to Vikings. Wonder anticipated this in his mock draft comments (which were made before the trade occurred). "ALL is dependent on the Rams...IF they go Dorsey, Atl gets ryan...OAK will NOT allow KC to have Chris Long...soooooo, KC gets Gholston...the Jets take McFadden...and NE GETS F***ED FOR ONCE...they have to take Rivers, DRC, or McKelvin unless trade down with N.O (who want Ellis)."
Wonder's Mock Draft
So far we have given you Wonder's Top 5 at each position and his Top 31 VALUE BOARD. Wonder is a value guy. REPEAT- Wonder is a value guy. When you stray from Wonder's VALUE BOARD (see post yesterday) he is going to let you know. When you trade down so that you stay in line with value, you get wonder-ful praise. When you reach you get trashed. (Wait till the sparks fly from Wonder on Saturday.) Without further ado, here is Wonder's 2008 Round 1 NFL Mock Draft.
1. MIA- J. Long..safe but WRONG for value
2. STL- MUST and will take Dorsey..it's TURF !!..Cariker MUST move outside..all of a sudden, their DL starts to control the line..their speed off the ball..and power..AWESOME !!
3. ATL- will, and should, take Ryan..if not, Gholston
4. OAK- will take C. Long
5. KC- Ryan or Gholston. MUST TOTALLY rebuild..of course, I would start by firing the coach who lost 9 straight games..but what do I know..they are NOT crazy to trade J Allen...IF they get good value for him, start over and YOUNG..and IF Ryan avail, MUST take him..let him sit for TWO years while you rebuild OL, etc...
6. NYJ- McFadden. IF Ryan avail..MUST draft and play POKER!! Would also consider keeping Ryan and MOVING either Clemens or Penn. while Ryan sat..would think if ATL went with Dorsey or Gholston, that Blanks would LOVE to get Pennington "cheap"..perhaps their first 3rd round pick and a 5th rounder..win win for both teams...Atl gets character, etc...if not, Jets MUST take McF..if ALL gone (both Longs, Gh, McF, Dorsey) then must take Gholston...best would be to take him and THEN TRADE down...maximizes value AND stops NE from taking him...I think he MAY be awesome..but could be a bust as he really needs to play a 4-3end a la J Abraham in my opinion.. move down..grab Merling, Balmer, DRC, Mendenhall/Stewart,etc..make SURE YOU GET HARDY !!! (or Sweed or Kelly)..need BIG red zone presence.
7. NE- Rivers (betting they trade DOWN to CINC/N.O)
8. BALT- Ellis. MUST TRADE UP AT ALL COSTS TO TAKE RYAN even if "overpay"...their team is getting old on D...IF "protected" and not asked to do too much in '08, Ryan could step right in ala big ben.
9. CINC- They're PISSED but grab either McKelvin or DRCromartie
10. NO- McKelvin or DRC (better potential)
11. BUF- Devin Thomas before the mice get at him...might be a little high..BUT the thought of Evans/Thomas surrounding Edwards and Lynch is REALLY a cinch...just a "catching" TE and they're there...they should go for Kellen Davis
12. DEN- MUST GET OT AND DT...solution? trade for D-Rob and draft Clady...who is a GREAT pass blocker...MUST protect CUTLER!!
13. CAR-...real tough decision...but I think Stewart is best...team with Williams...great pot RB's...
14. CHI- MUST be able to RUN and PROTECT...IF they believe they can turn him around and get him in shape, OTAH is the way to go..I know Mendenhall is attractive here...native son and all...but they need HELP on OL...
15. DET- MENDENHALL before CHI changes their minds !!! not even a close decision..
16. AZ- really tough...but I think Merling is a good fit here...may also grab "leftover" of DRC, Rivers, McKelvin
17. MINN- need DE real bad..I believe they will obtain J ALLEN from KC, so...draft choice goes to KC..assuming they DID NOT get Ryan at #5, they should have gone after ALBERT at 5 and Harvey here...
18. HOU- they're sick all RB's are gone...real sick..have to decide...I say go get a tough, tall Possession receiver opposite Johnson (who is double, triple teamed every week)....HARDY or SWEED, whichever they like more...alternative is to grab Mayo and really ramp up that D that got brewing..if McKelvin, DRC is left, may grab one of them..
19. PHI- MUST take WR ..take either HARDY or Sweed...however, if they move Shepard and one of CB's is left, that's who they'll take...also, like Mayo here as a poss..
20. TB- wow...what are they to do ?? all depends on "before them"...I would love to take Groves here to be the new "Brooks"...if not, Balmer..
21. WASH- also depends on before them..but I like Keller here..could REALLY help Campbell a LOT.
22. DAL- Jenkins...UNLESS a WR is left...would NEVER take D Jackson here
23. PIT- they're sick no OT they want is here..but they're still going take Cherilus
24. TENN- DESP for WR...they're going to reach here...but Kelly is a decent gamble if all others gone...if he gets his head on straight...big target over the middle for Young
25. SEA- really pissed Keller is gone...so they grab Cason to play opp Trufant...may overreach to grab Bennett
26. JAX- TRADE DOWN...try to grab Bryant in 2nd round to replace Stroud...or misjudge and grab williams
27. SD- TRADE DOWN- wanted Cherilus...but I think Baker would be a good RT for them
28.DAL- Felix Jones...prob a mistake..but could be a "parttime" home run hitter opp Barber
29. SF- best CB for them that's left...
30. GB- MUST GRAB QB of their choice to groom and/or back up and/or BE their #1 if Rodgers bombs...
31. NYG- Lofton, Connor, Porter or other CB...whoever they think is best value here...would DIE if Groves still avail
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
Wonder's VALUE BOARD
The following is Wonder's VALUE BOARD, with a brief comment on each player. It is NOT A MOCK DRAFT. It is Wonder's assessment of the best player available. As an example, Wonder does not project McFadden at #1 for Miami and he does not see the Giants necessarily taking Flowers or Talib either. The hope for the Giants is that someone of value AHEAD of those players is available and FALLS to #31... someone like Groves, Hardy or Cherilus. Gosder Cherilus is 6'7", 314 lbs., switched to LT from RT in his senior year, and if you are not sure if the Giants will have interest... he played for Boston College, aka NY Giants North.
THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE, IN DESCENDING ORDER:
1. McFadden- POTENTIALLY biggest game changer
2. Dorsey- ever hear of Warren Sapp?..4-3 ONLY
3. Gholston- most POTENTIALLY dominant DE(4-3 end !!)
4. Jake Long- best OT..and SAFE pick
5. Chris Long- great att,motor,intangibles..(I think 4-3 end)
6. Ellis- undervalued...could be anchor in 4-3
7. Rivers-hard to predict...I think best in 4-3 OLB (TB brooks?)
8. Ryan- good but not great..needs a good team
9. RCromartie- POTENTIAL BEST CB in YEARS
10/11. Stewart/Mendenhall- GREAT value, studs
12. Albert- disagree.think he should be TOP FIVE OG, not OT
13. Clady- little unclear..good body..feet ??
14. Thomas- I believe he WILL be the next TO on good team
15. Balmer- versatile...3-4 NT or 4-3 DT..10 year solid pro
16. Mayo- not sure he can play MLB..but GREAT ILB 3-4
17. Merling- just plug him into a 4-3 DE and let him play
18. Harvey- Beast? or bust? has to play 4-3 DE
19. Otah- MOOSE...if not quick enough, could be a prob
20. Groves- POTENTIAL BEAST (see J. ABRAHAM !!)
21. McKelvin- solid pro
22. Keller- in new pass happy NFL, 60-70 catches/yr !!
23. Jenkins- solid pro
24. Hardy- "small" Harold Carmichael !! RED ZONE !!!
25. Sweed- unclear..but if he learns to go across the middle..
26. Cason- next group of solid cb's
27. Flacco (THIS MUST BE A NEED PICK..2-3 yrs away)
28. Cherilus- plug him in at RT for next 10 years..
29/30. Brohm/Henne (NEED PICK)- good value /pot..
31. Flowers/Talib (pick one!) for COVER 2
Monday, April 21, 2008
WONDER'S PERSPECTIVE- Round #2
The Giants Pick at #63. Here is a list of people Wonder says if available at #63 the Giants are out of their mind not to take:
Bryant
Avril
Barrett
Nicks
This is the spot where I like Barrett. He is a good safety. When you have a need for Safety, taking someone at Round 2 is smart, not Round 1. According to Wonder (a diehard Jets fan and hater of ALL New England sports teams): "if the bastards grab Barrett.. I shoot myself." So here is to hoping that the Giants get Barrett at #63 and the Patriots do not take him at #62... for our sake AND Wonder's health. Wonder is hoping that both the Giants and Patriots pass on Barrett and that the Jets take him early in Round 3. That could happen because Barrett could easily be a third rounder from OTHERS PERCEPTIONS. If the Giants are able to get Barrett at the very last pick of Round 2 that is akin to a third round draft choice anyway, so get him there and have a smart player in Knight groom him.
Sunday, April 20, 2008
WONDER'S PERSPECTIVE
We can guess all day whether Reese is in a position to trade up or trade down. My instinct is to believe that since this draft is deep enough through at least Round 2 (and more likely through Round 3), the Giants are going to sit back and wait for #31. Who is going to be available AND/OR a good pick at #31 for the Giants? WONDER answers that question for us:
Cherilus
Mayo
Groves
Hardy
Baker
Sweed?
Keller
Wonder: "Groves is the best of this lot. Hardy is the steal of the draft."
There are 7 guys listed here, and most will be gone by the time the Giants pick. Wonder is not a Connor fan. Given my personal preference for a Linebacker, GET GROVES! The Giants have not drafted a LB #1 in 24 years, so it is about freaking time! Plus, as much as I respect Wonder's alert on a WR like Hardy, I do not like WRs in Round 1. Considering that the gmen just scored with Steve Smith at #2 last year and that they have Toomer, Burress, Jennings, Moss... just draft a WR in ~4th or 5th round (more on that this week) and focus on other areas. ALSO, the weakest link on offense for the Giants is now Diehl at LT, so if the Giants go Offense in Round 1 it should be for a guy like Cherilus before a WR. Defense wins championships and the reason we won the Super Bowl was not because we scored 17, it was because we held the Patriots to 14. Take LB Quentin Groves from Auburn and make the defense better.
Saturday, April 19, 2008
Friday, April 18, 2008
Wonder's NFL Draft Analysis: Top 5 picks on Defense by Position
DT: Dorsey/Ellis, Balmer, Bryant (true NOSE), Okam- out of shape, horrible at combine...but if someone like Parcells can kick his a** for a year, watch out...if not, out of league
DE: Gholston, Long, Merling (VERY underrated), Harvey (beast or bust), Cambell (beast or bust)
OLB: Rivers, Groves (CONV..huge potential or bust), Avril, Howard, Adibi/Wheeler
ILB: Mayo, Connor, Lofton, Crable, Bell
CB: DRCromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, Cason, Talib/Flowers (BOTH need to play cover 2)
S: Demps, Johnson, Phillips, Morgan, Barrett (HUGE POTENTIAL...would be an all-pro after being on bench with BeleD**K for year or so..and learning...)
K: punter Brooks
Thursday, April 17, 2008
Wonder's NFL Draft Analysis: Top 5 picks on Offense by Position
QB: Ryan, Flacco, Brohm, Henne, Johnson (GREAT VALUE !! as project if late 3rd-4th round)
RB: McFadden, Mendenhall/Stewart (Tie), Jones, Johnson (FAST Leon Washington)
WR: Thomas, Sweed, Hardy, Kelly, Jackson...LOTS OF DEPTH here for SMALLISH fast guys..Avery, Royal, etc...have to grab SIZE early !!
TE: Keller, Bennett, Davis (KELLEN NOT FRED!!), Davis, Cottam (strictly potential, etc. blocker - all around)/Rucker
OT: Long, Clady, Otah, Cherilus, Collins/Baker...NOT WILLIAMS !!! NICKS, Cousins...plenty of potential..DEEP
OG: ALBERT, ALBERT, ALBERT, ALBERT, AND ALBERT....then, Rachal, Shuening, Young (conv.), Thomas/McGlynn
C: Pollack..STOP !! all suck..but...Sullivan, Justice...ok
If you have questions for Wonder, let me know via email or comment.
