So why are you shocked?

So many people out there are shocked, saddened, disappointed that we have lost Wilson, Mitchell and Torbor on the first day. And the same crowd gets a little ornery when they hear that the Giants have contacted the agents for free agent safeties Eugene Wilson, Erik Coleman and Sammy Knight... guys who are 'also rans.' But this is how Reese got it done last year, and all things considered he was more likely than not going to be passive again. Winning the Super Bowl with 'passive' was not going to turn him into Dan Snyder.

One thing Reese better wake up to fast is the price of EVERYTHING just went up. The fact that he scored on the Tuck contract better not keep him from recalibrating his compass. Umenyiora? Burress? Strahan? Poker just got expensive. It is one thing to lose out to the Raiders on Wilson. He is a good safety. Not a great defensive end. Not a great Wide Receiver. So today was hors d'oeuvres. The main battle is not even here yet. Plaxico, Osi and Stray are yelling "SHOW ME THE MONEY!" I hope Reese is listening.

Wilson 6 yrs 39M 16M signing bonus Raiders

Just thank your lucky stars that we got Tuck for 5 yrs and 30M with 16M signing bonus.

Torbor signs with Dolphins

Bills sign Kawika Mitchell 5yrs $17.5M

Raiders going after Wilson

1) The Raiders are looking to sign Wilson for $6M-$6.5M/yr.
2) League Source: There is "a possibility" NYG can retain Mitchell.
3) Looking doubtful NYG will re-sign LB Reggie Torbor.
4) They might lose free-agent RB Derrick Ward.

The Gibril Wilson Squeeze

Short version: we are not going to re-sign Gibril Wilson.

The explanation: Fact #4 below-Chicago Bears General Manager Jerry Angelo called the class of safeties in the draft "anemic." Fact #1-With Wilson entering free agency, Dahl cut, and Butler (too slow) a liability, one would think the Giants would desperately need to hold onto the services of Wilson. But not when the price elevates. When was the last time you saw the Giants "pay up" for anything?

More than a few people still hold out hope that Gibril Wilson can somehow sign with the Giants in an 11th hour move (i.e. like O'Hara last year) if the Giants would come close to the kind of numbers he would get as a free agent. Fact #2- The talk out of the combine had more than a few (3, to be exact) unnamed teams interested in Wilson beyond the rumored teams of the Broncos and Eagles. Hmmm, let's get this straight:

1) your own team wants you back
2) as many as FIVE other teams are interested in you once you hit free agency
3) you are considered the best safety out there in this crop of free agents
4) there is a dearth of skill coming through at the Draft in April
5) the ever-expanding salary cap has plenty of teams with plenty of money to spend

If I was Wilson's agent, I would be telling him to go to free agency too. He is making the right move. The Giants organization does not chase players, and this is a chase all right. Wilson got his ring, and we return to the scene of the George B. Young crime: it is all about the money. The Giants never truly succumbed to the economic reality of last year's jump in the cap from the Collective Bargaining Agreement. And they are not willing to swallow that medicine again this year (not yet at least) when free agency begins at the stroke of midnight. By winning the Super Bowl, why should they? They view themselves as right for not going wild in free agency last year. The only problem with this logic is that Wilson is a good 'team' player who will get paid. And if the Giants make a mistake of not paying "enough" to keep him... WHERE ENOUGH=FAIR, then that is a mistake. My read on the situation is simply that what the market ends up going to will be determined by the Giants as mildly extreme.

The Giants are a conservative organization. They do not set prices, they join the price when it is set. As an example of this, the Giants always like to wait until the 16th or 17th pick in the draft has done his contract, as well as the 20th pick, so that they can THEN set the contract for their 19th pick. One of these other alleged five teams with interest in Wilson will go after him, the Giants will watch, and Wilson will get his money elsewhere.

Free Agency Eve

Free agency begins tonight. Do not try to predict what Reese will do. If one uses last year as a single datapoint, he will be quieter than we would like. But drawing conclusions from one datapoint is ridiculous. There could be one particular player who the Giants rate much higher than others, in which case Reese gets active in a hurry. We'll put it another way- the over/under number for high ticket free agents the Giants entertain will be 1, and the over/under number for high ticket free agents the Giants sign will be 0.5. Here is a quick summary of excerpted positions from packersnews.com which are more relevant to the Giants-

Linebackers: Lance Briggs has been linked to San Francisco and Washington after spending a season wallowing under the franchise tag in Chicago. He seems best suited to play outside linebacker in a 4-3 defensive scheme, and at 27, he will strike it rich. … Terrell Suggs (Baltimore), a hybrid linebacker/end, and Karlos Dansby (Arizona) have been franchised. … The price for converted end Calvin Pace (Arizona) jumped after his breakout season in 2007, but the Cardinals reportedly want to retain the five-year veteran. Bargain basement: Boss Bailey (Detroit), Kawika Mitchell (N.Y. Giants), Brandon Chillar (St. Louis), DeMorrio Williams (Atlanta), Rosevelt Colvin (New England, released).

Cornerbacks: New Orleans reportedly is the front-runner to land Asante Samuel (New England), the 27-year-old cover king who is considered the top free agent in this year's class. The Jets, Tampa Bay and Philadelphia also have been linked to Samuel, who is expected to get a contract averaging $10 million or more per year. … Nnamdi Asomugha (Oakland) and Marcus Trufant (Seattle) were franchised, leaving Drayton Florence — who lost his starting job in San Diego last season to Antonio Cromartie — as the next best option. Question mark: Will Brian Kelly (Tampa Bay) regret paying $435,000 to buy out the final year of a contract that would have paid him $3.2 million in base salary next season? Bargain basement: Ty Law (Kansas City, reportedly to be released), Randall Gay (New England), Travis Fisher (Detroit), Jacques Reeves (Dallas).

Safeties: Gibril Wilson will test the market. Philadelphia and Denver have been reported as possible destinations. Dallas placed the franchise tag on Ken Hamlin. Question mark: How will season-ending injuries to Yeremiah Bell (Miami) and Madieu Williams (Cincinnati) affect their value? Bargain basement: Eugene Wilson (New England), Will Demps (Houston), Marquand Manuel (Carolina), Chris Crocker (Atlanta).

I was going to include a recap of Left Tackle, but when I read it, it made me wince. They had Flozell Adams at 32 leading the parade... between his age and his stature as a penalty offender on the order of Luke Petitgout, I would be surprised to see Reese go for him.. and any other high priced name in this category. This leaves us with Safety, CB, and LB as the only places where we might be active. The only other item of note will be Derrick Ward, who is expected to hit the free agent market tomorrow.

Marc Ross

The new Director of Player Personnel is Marc Ross. While working for the Eagles, Ross was responsible for bringing in players such as Brian Westbrook, Lito Sheppard and Derrick Burgess. Some excerpts of what he had to say about the draft:

“You never want to pass up good players. If you have players of similar talent, similar value – their value is close – then you should push it toward the need end, I think, but if there is a huge discrepancy and you have somebody on the board that just has so much more value than the guy you have at the position of need, then you have to go with the guy who you have the higher value on. No doubt about it.

“Good players are going to end up playing and if you force a bad player into a position of need, then they may not end up playing anyway. I have had that happen in drafts (for the Eagles), where we try to force players just because we needed them or you thought you needed them. You end up with a position of strength at this time in the year to maybe a position of weakness where if you would have drafted the best player then that wouldn’t have been an issue. It seems like here they have done a great job in doing that. Taking the best players and they have found a way to get them on the field with (Justin) Tuck and Kiwi (Mathias Kiwanuka). Good players are going to play. They will find a way to get on the field.

“I am glad they cut the time down on the draft this year so it won’t be as long as some other years (the time between first round picks has been reduced from 15 to 10 minutes). This is my first time picking this low. We picked low a lot in Philadelphia, so I am used to waiting for a while, but this is the first time picking this low.

“I think we are in a good situation to take the best player, because in the first round a lot of teams do take for need. I think there will be some players sitting and waiting for us with that last player who probably should have been drafted higher. That is my thought going into it. My thought is that we can find just as good a player at 31 as we can at 10.

“You never know where those players are going to come from. Ahmad Bradshaw would have been (the 250th player taken last year), but if you stack the board again this year and he might have been in the first round. You just never know where those guys are going to come from. I am not discouraged. People have been saying that every time we won a playoff game, ‘Oh, it is messing up your draft pick.’ But I look at it as a challenge. I have total confidence that we are going to get a good player where we are picking.”

Reese is a scout. Ross is a scout. The scout mantra is pick'em and play'em. I like the 31st pick in the draft, and his remarks make me feel that much more confident. (See previous post for more color on why- it is like a second rounder.) Reese and Ross know very well that if they give up the pick for Hall, they could be giving up a lot. For all we know, both clubs go into the draft w/o a deal and may make one after the first 30 players have been chosen when NY is on the clock. But either way, it is very interesting to see the scouting culture well entrenched at the Giants front office.

Believe in Second Round Draft Picks

Many years ago (pre blog, when this started as email chat amongst ~15-20 Giants fan), I went through the numbers on the Giants' success in the first round vs the second round. It was staggering. The bottomline conclusion at the time was that the Giants were much more capable of finding the second round talent than the first round player. This was a GEORGE YOUNG conclusion. What about Accorsi and Reese? Let's look.

Key dates: 1979 George Young's first draft. 1994 Jerry Reese joins as junior scout. 1998 Ernie Accorsi hired as GM. May 2002 (2003) Jerry Reese promoted to Head of Player Personnel in charge of the draft. 2007 Reese's first draft as GM.

Using a completely subjective rating system where a player who is making/made meaningful contributions = 1, and a player who faded out of the picture gets a 0, we add up the total from each Executive's meaningful years. Young (1979-1997), Accorsi (1998-2006) and Reese (2003-2007).

Exec, # Yrs, Rd1 score, Rd2 Score
Young 19 9 12
Accorsi 9 4 5
Reese 5 3 4

Table explained- as an example, in 19 years, Young had 9 solid contributors from first round picks and 12 from the second round.

One would logically think that it would be easier to pick first rounders which could contribute to the team, but therein lies the enigma. There is slightly more impact from second round picks than first round picks. (Considering that Reese has only 5 years of data and that Accorsi was in charge for four of them, it is too little information to really draw any conclusions about his work.) The point is clear- second round picks are where this organization seems to thrive. Until we get much stronger hit percentages on the 1st rounders as compared to second rounders, it makes sense to get more volume of second rounders when given value on a trade down. The 1st rounder is the sizzle, the lure of the dominant player, but the Toomers-Strahans-Barbers of the world get plenty done without being the once in a generation Lawrence Taylor (... and how many OTHER times have we picked #2 in the entire draft?- none with the exception of a trade up for Manning).

SECOND ROUND DRAFT PEDIGREE GETS IT DONE OVER AND OVER.

Given this conclusion, what are the takeaways for this upcoming draft?
1) Sit tight with your #31 (really like a high second round pick) and #64 picks, pick up quality additions and do not worry about them not being super impact players. For the Giants this draft will not be sizzle, it will be steak.
2) Do not go chasing DeAngelo Hall. If you have to pay more than a #31 pick and you cannot extend his contract before he gets here, it does not feel like it is worth it. (I personally feel the #1 pick is not worth it either, but respect the value of a good corner enough to understand why the Giants would consider it. He has enough baggage. The most exciting thing about him is his age (24)... that is why the Giants are attracted to him. This is why you MUST extend that contract before making the trade. And therein lies the rub- you have to extend the contract, pay him plenty up front, all for him to be potentially volatile and blow up in your face if he is a malcontent in waiting.)
3) Sometimes doing nothing is the best thing. Reese did not go wild last year, so he has cap room this year as a result. "Folding" your hand and simply using your draft picks is not dereliction of duty if being proactive means going 1 step forward and 2 steps back. See Snyder for myriad examples of that.

Free Agency approaches

and word is Gibril will likely get 'overpaid' by one of 'many' suitors. Translated, the Giants will likely get outbid. Strahan will take more time to make his decision on whether to come back.

I would love Wilson to come back a NY Giant. But Reese has to do what he has to do, and that means letting him walk. Safeties are NOT a skill position in the NFL. These are the stresses of holding the team together. A team like the Eagles knows that they win twice if they drive up the cost enough to make us drop out of the arms race for his services. Losing a safety is not as critical as losing a CB or Lineman.

Draft Value Chart

The following is a draft value chart obtained by a writer for nfl.com a few years ago. It attempts to numerically value every pick in the draft. (The writer obtained it from an NFL team.)

If a team picking second in the draft every round was to trade up from #2 to #1 in the first round of the draft, it would
have to give up (3000-2600=) 400 points, or something close to their 3rd round + 4th round + 6th round pick.

P# Rnd1 Rnd2 Rnd3 Rnd4 Rnd5 Rnd6 Rnd7
01 3000 0580 0265 0112 0043 0027 0014
02 2600 0560 0260 0108 0042 0027 0014
03 2200 0550 0255 0104 0041 0026 0013
04 1800 0540 0250 0100 0040 0026 0013
05 1700 0530 0245 0096 0040 0025 0013
06 1600 0520 0240 0092 0039 0025 0012
07 1500 0510 0235 0088 0039 0025 0012
08 1400 0500 0230 0086 0038 0024 0011
09 1350 0490 0225 0084 0038 0024 0011
10 1300 0480 0220 0082 0037 0023 0011
11 1250 0470 0215 0080 0037 0023 0010
12 1200 0460 0210 0078 0036 0023 0010
13 1150 0450 0205 0076 0036 0022 0009
14 1100 0440 0200 0074 0035 0022 0009
15 1050 0430 0195 0072 0035 0021 0009
16 1000 0420 0190 0070 0034 0021 0008
17 0950 0410 0180 0066 0033 0020 0007
19 0875 0390 0175 0064 0033 0020 0007
20 0850 0380 0170 0062 0032 0019 0007
21 0800 0370 0165 0060 0032 0019 0006
22 0780 0360 0160 0058 0031 0019 0006
23 0760 0350 0155 0056 0031 0018 0005
24 0740 0340 0150 0054 0031 0018 0005
25 0720 0330 0145 0052 0030 0017 0005
26 0700 0320 0140 0050 0020 0017 0004
27 0680 0310 0136 0049 0029 0017 0004
28 0660 0300 0132 0048 0029 0016 0003
29 0640 0292 0128 0047 0029 0016 0003
30 0620 0284 0124 0046 0028 0015 0003
31 0600 0276 0120 0045 0028 0015 0002
32 0590 0270 0116 0044 0027 0015 0002

Burress et al

The stresses of keeping together a Super Bowl winner are immense. Reese has the cap room. The players know this. Reese cuts players he does not feel are worth it, so now that he has a bunch of players that are all (on the surface) worth it as 'champions,' he will have to sort through the ones he thinks want to be champions AGAIN.

Between UFA's like Wilson and Mitchell, and guys under contract like Strahan, Umenyiora, and Burress, you have to know Reese is juggling a lot of issues. He'll figure it out and make work whatever needs to be done. At this point he certainly has earned himself the benefit of the doubt on his decisions.

Jerry Reese and Zach Thomas

Reese
Zach Thomas
I continue to be impressed by Reese's professionalism, his perspective, his understanding of the NFL, and his priorities in getting the Giants to where he wants them to be. Actions speak louder than words, but both seem to be fairly consistent and dovetail one another.

What does this have to do with Zach Thomas going to Dallas in a 1 year deal? Everything. I have never seen a 34 year old LB improve a team. In fact the only position which I have seen a 34 year old football player improve his team is in some special situations at Quarterback. When other teams get younger, stronger, FASTER, that is when I get concerned. The Young/Accorsi/Reese structure of staying away from free agents >30 years of age may not work for EVERY situation but it is a reasonable model for enabling competitiveness.

Giant Myths in 2007 and 2008

Let's see if we can list some Giants (and NFL) myths and then quickly debunk them.

1) A Training Camp Holdout Works. Not. Most holdouts are disasters. Many end up in injury. In the case of Strahan, he was needed in Game 1 and was not able to help with impact until ~ Game 4-5. Show up at camp and if the coach has any clue he will not overwork a veteran who is 35 years old. And in the case of a contract holdout, the team loses, the player loses, and the free agent is generally the only winner because he shows toughness (for all the rest of his clients) and kills the player and the team in the process.

2) We were never winning a Super Bowl with Tiki Barber. Coughlin would not listen to Barber. The Maras (as a result, in my opinion) told Coughlin to change and listen to/communicate with his players better. If Barber had been playing this year with Spagnuolo doing his magic tricks and Manning throwing the ball better, who is to say what would have happened? I have stated before and will reiterate it here- Reese's removal of the BIGGEST penalty offender in Luke Petitgout probably was the single largest addition by subtraction the Giants had. (and I never understood that until it happened.)

3) We were never winning a Super Bowl with Shockey. See previous posts for this myth getting rejected. To quote vanilla Eli Manning, that is a stupid theory.

4) The experts were wrong about (not predicting) the Giants success this year because they were ignorant of the facts. NOT! The Giants had two new coordinators, a new defensive system, a new Left Tackle, lack of depth at OL, no proven pass-catching out of the backfield, a mediocre QB who remained mediocre for the first 15 out of 16 games, a veteran holdout, a new FG kicker who could barely make (and missed many) extra points, a new LB playing out of position, and a secondary which our own GM was the first to admit was our most glaring weakness. Oh, and did I mention that we had a once-in-a-generation rookie draft class that no one, not even Jerry Reese could have predicted would make such an enormous impact? Excluding Washington W3, the Giants did not beat a team with a winning record until Tampa Bay in the Playoffs. Pierce can use the self-righteous indignation 'us-against-the-world' stuff (GREAT- it helped us win a title!), but until W16 Buffalo and W17 Patriots, this team was inconsistent, half-baked, and COUGHLIN HIMSELF ADMITTED HE HAD NOT SEEN A GAME ALL YEAR WHERE HIS OFFENSE, DEFENSE AND SPECIALS ALL PLAYED WELL ALL ON THE SAME DAY. That changed W17. Logically and rationally, W17 was the change when (not so coincidentally) Manning started playing great.

5) Gilbride's ring proves he has the answers for us on offense. His playcalling was often unpredictable and therefore positive, but beyond that I see mismanagement of Shockey/Boss and Bradshaw, not to mention no help for Eli correcting mistakes which he repeated too many times until near season's end. Not sold on him at all. Someone explain to me why we never ran outside in the Super Bowl? Can anyone justify RunRunRunKick vs Dallas at 9:27 left with a 4 point lead? This offense is better than Gilbride.

6) Coughlin can't change and is not capable of winning the big one. The Giants ordered him to communicate better and listen to his players, he did and the rest is history. I thought he was a dead end, and I was dead wrong!

7) We can convert Kiwanuka into a good LB. Well, to be fair, this one has not been totally busted. Yet. Incomplete. When he handles Witten I will admit I am wrong on this. My mantra is very simple- You draft players in the first round to be an impact and you select players in rounds 3-7 to do the other work surrounding THEM. Asking a DE to go into coverage is okay once in a while to confuse a QB, not okay for every down assignment.

8) Eli Manning is too inconsistent and too inaccurate. Out of nowhere he busted us nattering nabobs of negativity. FREE PASS FOR LIFE.

9) The Giants can't beat anyone with a winning record. Until they beat 4 of the best in the league, all in the playoffs, to win the Super Bowl!!!!

10) Now that the Giants are Super Bowl winners, their tougher schedule will be a large obstacle to them doing well. Ever since the league realigned into 8 divisions, there are only 2 games in each team's schedule which get matched for strength of record from the previous season. For the Giants this means we play Minnesota and Carolina. THEY WENT 8-8 AND 7-9 THIS PAST YEAR. So the Pete Rozelle scheme of having the dregs play the dregs and the best playing the best has been diluted and it is Minnesota and Carolina that have to worry about the Giants, not the Giants worrying about them.

11) The Giants (a year) after the Super Bowl always get torched and this coming year we will get torched once again. Look at the circumstances... 1986 was followed by a strike year when Mara was naively last to the party to lock up replacements. 1990 was followed by the Parcells screw defection in May 1991 when we inherited a poor choice from Young in Ray Handley. Between Handley and Rod Rust, it sent the organization back about 20 years back into 1970's Giants depression. 2000 was demonstrated to be a semi-fraud year where our 12-4 record was pumped up with the inflated steroids of a weak division which we whipped 7-1, while only going 5-3 vs everyone else. This was an above average year and Fassel could never handle any prosperity because the strength of schedule came back the next year to expose his team. Summarized- there is no strike in 2008, there is no coaching change in 2008, and there is no fraud since we whipped the best. The youth (improving) should give us more legs to have a very competitive year.

Roster Update

1) Dahl cut. 2) Giants trying to get Mitchell and/or Wilson re-signed before UFA deadline. Mitchell more likely than Wilson. Strong interest from others likely for Wilson. 3) Giants willing to renegotiate Strahan's contract when he is ready. 4) Trade talk is centered on Giants trading a #1 pick to the Falcons for CB DeAngelo Hall.