The Main Event of the World Series of Poker

is World Championship No-Limit Texas Hold'em. 6,844 Entrants. 35 players left. Top Prize over $9M. Notables still remaining include Mike Matusow. Play will end when they reach the final table of 9 players and then it will resume in November (ESPN). The media will be very happy if Matusow is still alive in the final table. They will have a field day if the lone remaining woman, Tiffany Michelle, makes it there. The way things are progressing, she stands as good a shot as anyone given that she has ~7.3M chips (average chip stack is currently ~4M).

Plaxico Burress book tour radio interview

In between minicamp and training camp, you have to be a returning Super Bowl champion to have material like this for a football blog. Little items of amusement, like- they served chicken broth on the sidelines of the Green Bay championship game instead of water or gatorade, which would freeze. OR BIGGER ITEMS, like the fact that the mcl sprain in the shower caused Plax to be unable to make cuts to the right in the Super Bowl.

Favre asks for unconditional release from Packers

Favre has asked the GB packers to unconditionally release him so that he can play football again in 2008.

How many times has this guy retired now? I lost track. We all put him up on a pedestal when he retired in March to honor his place as one of the top 10 quarterbacks of all time. So what do you want the Packers organization to do NOW? It is July and Favre has the itch to play again. I feel for the Packers because they are trying to move on. This is a disruptive move for them. Even if they made it known that they would not be receptive to another year, they have him under contract and could have easily traded him back in February to any of a host of teams that would logically feel they are a QB away from a title. And they should be able to do that now as well. But training camp opens up in less than 2 weeks, so any suitor has already lost at least SOME interest in a player like this. There really are no winners. If I am the Packers, out of respect for MY organization I try to trade him and if I cannot get much of anything I would then release him.

What kind of impact will Favre have with another team? He better join a team with an offensive line, because that itch to get back in the game will turn out to be a nightmare if he is getting clocked all the time. The only thing that is perfectly clear to me is that this is a mistake for Favre. Strahan is looking like a freaking genius right now. #92 spent some time, thought it over, made sure it was what he was going to do, did it and has made the right choice. The likelihood for Favre is that he will be joining a new system (even if it is something similar to the offense in GB), will have new linemen he needs to be on the same page with, new receivers he needs to be on the same page with... new trust issues he will have with his coaches. Unless he gets a "super" fit this is a can of worms of enormous proportions. He could have the greatest fit imaginable, still get blindsided at his age and not fully recover from injury. I respect his will to win, his will to play, but if the Giants taught him anything in his last game as a pro, it was that he was coming up a little short and needed to take a seat. In Canton.

Growth and Value

There are two general camps of investing in the world of stocks: growth and value. Growth stocks are ones where you pay a (significant) premium to what the stock is currently worth on its balance sheet because the company is expected to grow revenue and profits at an inordinately high rate, making the purchase price justified over a certain period of time. Value stocks are ones which have been beaten down and can be purchased at a discount to accepted norms of the balance sheet, ie low price/earnings ratio, low discount to "book" value etc.. Why the mention of these financial investment terms on a football blog? Simple- drafting is all about selections based on a philosophy of growth and value. To quote Wonder, it is not WHO you take but WHERE you take him. Therein lies the denominator which ultimately determines the aggressiveness of a draft choice. Initial Public Offerings ("IPOs") are always about growth, because often these younger companies have more growth prospects than balance sheet track record and stability. In 1986 Microsoft went public and was one of the greatest examples of a successful growth stock, always outperforming what was seemingly a rich stock price. For every successful growth pick, there are many less-heralded companies that fade into oblivion. Think Dot-com high fliers that went from triple digits to zero. They never made a penny in earnings and eventually they cratered. In the football world, paying up for 'growth' means using a very high draft pick for someone who has skills but not necessarily the track record of performance 'yet' on the field. Johnnie Lam Jones was the ultimate draft growth pick disaster. The Giants have recently made two growth picks (coincidentally both in the second round): Osi Umenyiora and Sinorice Moss. At the time, picking Umenyiora was a reach, but the Giants felt that his 'raw' talents would lead to great success down the road. They were correct. (And well before this blog was started, I was on record as not being happy... here was a guy who barely knew what football was who was short on experience being taken in the SECOND round! Not value by ANY stretch.) But obvly the 'promise' of Sinorice Moss, who was given a pedigree because of his brother, has yet to deliver the same rewards. Such is the life of a growth pick. The latest examples of classic value picking is Justin Tuck and Ahmad Bradshaw. Tuck fell to the third round because of an injury. Bradshaw fell to the 7th round because of "off the field" criminal activity. Bradshaw was a classic bear market where his valuation eventually becomes so compelling that you expend less resources on the promise of performance returning down the road. Great value because of WHERE he was chosen.

Exceptions to the Rules..?.. Part 3

Is Rule #10 (trading a lot of picks for one player) seemingly obliterated by the success of Eli Manning in leading the Giants to Super Bowl XLII? How is it possible to say that Manning has a free pass for life while also being adamantly against Accorsi's trade to get him? The answer is easy- I have said both and have no qualms saying it again:

THE TRADE FOR MANNING WAS INCORRECT!
ELI MANNING HAS A FREE PASS FOR LIFE!

This blog was started at the end of Nov 2006, 2+ years after the draft day in 2004 when Manning was taken in exchange for #1 in 2004, the #5 in 2004, the #1 in 2005 and the #3 in 2005. All for moving up three spots. I argued it in email in 2004 and will argue it again here- ACCORSI EGREGIOUSLY OVERPAID.

1) For starters I will say flatly that Ben Roethlisberger (whom Accorsi admits he would have taken with the #4 pick had the trade not been made) wins the Giants not 1 but quite possibly TWO titles already.

2) Secondly, like it or not, Eli Manning said he was not willing to play for the Chargers. Tough S***. Use that to your advantage and get a distressed sale.

3) It does not matter whether Eli goes to the Hall of Fame, wins us one or ten titles, the trade subjects your team to far more IMBALANCE by taking a team sport which is already focused on the success of a QB and putting it on the shoulders of ONE player EVEN MORE! Remember Jay Alford, that unknown #3 pick from 2007? The one who sacked Brady and was in on more than a few key plays in the Super Bowl run? That is a #3 round pick that is part of your team, one which could have easily been there for the Giants that we will never know about because we no longer had the EXTRA #1, EXTRA #3 and EXTRA #5.

4) DO THE MATH! Go to your draft tables and you will see the Giants overpaid for moving up by roughly the value of a high #3 pick. Almost a second rounder! Not chopped liver.

So the point is that yes, Manning played lights out in his last 5 games, helped us tremendously to win a title, but that does NOT validate the trade. The trade was a poor one from the moment it was made. I do not care if all we got was old Eli through his first 3.5 seasons or the new one with the title. If someone gives you a coin and tells you heads you win 2 and tails you lose 3, it does not matter that it landed on heads and you 'won.' It was still a bad bet. Accorsi can argue all he wants about what he knew and did not know about Manning, but he overpaid AND had alternatives at #4.

Exceptions to the Rules..?.. Part 2

14) The 2 week layover for the SB makes for a lousy game which improves the chances for the favorite.

My only reply to this one is that Ultimatenyg nailed the two week layover for Super Bowl XLII a full 12 days before the Super Bowl when no one had yet begun to discuss the issue.

Rule 14 is all about the general matchup between two close teams during the regular season that would become a blowout (for the favorite) with the extra preparation. The odds actually fronted that and got it wrong because the Giants were never going to get the respect (and they STILL don't have it 5 months later!).

Plaxico Burress says he will be in camp

Paul Schwartz of the NY Post reports that Burress is comfortable with negotiations, that a deal will get done and that he will be in camp.

Plaxico Burress to be at camp- Paul Schwartz/NYPost

2008 is shaping up as a tremendous year in sports

A great Super Bowl, arguably the best (Giants fan or not!) Super Bowl with the best Super Bowl play as well.

An epic win by Tiger Woods, in an 18 hole playoff on one leg.

And yesterday, an epic Wimbledon Final.

These three 2008 championships are going to stand the test of time. What a year.

ESPN Coaches Poll

Rodney Harrison voted dirtiest player

Hines Ward voted (Non-QB) smartest offensive player

Zach Thomas voted smartest defensive player This one is a good read because they point out how smart players are always anticipating tendencies.

Rooney has the best reputation for an owner in the league.

Giants players receiving votes were Pierce (dirtiest), Strahan (smartest), and former Giant Nick Greisen as (notably) the youngest of those who received votes for smartest defensive player.

Exceptions to the Rules..?.. Part 1

Life is not perfect. Rules are made to be broken. The Rules For Winning in the NFL were posted on July 4th 2007. They cover a wide array of football decision-making, so it is not an easy task of assigning grades/performance. Yesterday we had some good comments that indicated some exceptions, but are the exceptions really EXCEPTIONS? I contend that the exceptions actually bolster even more evidence that the Rules continue to work.

As an example, it has been suggested that Rule 8 (being unpredictable) and Rule 21 (getting quality wins of 11+ points) were not used by the Giants and thus disproves and provides exceptions to the idea that a championship needs those elements. It is very clear that Coughlin (and through his mediocre assistant, Gilbride) used a very straightforward offensive approach, which on the surface supports this contention. My rebuttal is that the Giants offense was HELD BACK by Gilbride/Coughlin (specifically in Dallas) or else we would not be sitting here looking back and comfortably indicating the exception.

EVERYONE WHO HAS ENOUGH SELF-RESPECT AND RESPECT FOR THE GIANTS RUN will freely admit that we needed a whole lot of things to go right to squeak out wins of 4 (last defensive drive stop), 3 (OT) and 3 points (last drive) in the last 3 games. It did not have to be that close.

AT TB:
This was a quality win. Technically it is not (since the final was by 10, not 11), but when you are up by 10 and put the dagger in them with a long sustained drive to go up by 17, that is the definition of letting your offense win the game for you.

AT DALLAS:
1) Patrick Crayton's dropped ball (..if caught he is still running)
2) Patrick Crayton cuts off his route in the penultimate play or else Romo's 'overthrown' ball is a TD.
3) Romo's overthrown ball to a wide open TO in the red zone.
4) Gilbride's decision to use Bradshaw so much less than his effectiveness warranted (even Aikman and Buck wondered aloud about that one)
5) Shutting down the offense with 9:27 left

The Giants held on but violated too many rules. When you play with fire you get burned. The Giants were the better team but they gave the Cowboys opportunities. How about the personal foul on Davis for diving on Strahan- a drive killer. Point is that if the Cowboys executed just slightly better we are bemoaning the violation of Rule 17, 18 and 21.

AT GREEN BAY:
1) Tons of points left on the field

The Giants offense was not conservative in the GB game. They played to win and could have chalked up a 'quality' win in so many ways but the team shot themselves in the foot too many times. Imo, that game does not refute the rules at all. The final score of this game could have easily been as much as ~37-16 Giants.

PATRIOTS SUPER BOWL:
1) 4th and 1 on the final drive
2) Why all the running between the tackles?

The Giants shot themselves in the foot in the first half, consistently driving on the Patriots and coming up with very little. This was simply a hard fought game. And when you play an 18-0 Tom Brady team the way our defense played them, it just shows that Defense Wins Championships.

The Rules For Winning in the NFL

(Ultimatenyg note: This is a reprint of July 4, 2007's post. Rule 6 was violated so badly (causing a loss in this past year's playoffs) that we had to create a 6a addendum just for the offender! The last word (rule) has never been more true, eh Tom Brady?!!)

In the spirit of Independence Day, we declare these truths to be self-evident, that not all coaches and general managers are created equal... THE RULES FOR WINNING IN THE NFL! Please comment, detract, add your own. These rules can be amended (doubtful, but possible!) by your feedback.

1) Do not draft a "versatile" player in Round 1 of the draft. "Dominant" should be there, not versatile.
2) Left Tackle is a rare commodity. A good Left Tackle is better than a great ______ (fill in almost any other position).
3) WRs are a dime a dozen. Do not waste resources here; pick one up when you are close to the prize. They are always available.
4) "Linebackers, I collect'em." - Bill Parcells.
5) Pitchouts do not work in the red zone.
6) Repeat after me, Do not go for the 2 pt. conversion until there are 6 minutes left in the game. If there are more than 8 minutes left in the game, it is a 99% certainty that it was the wrong decision.
6a) The Mike Tomlin Rule- The only thing worse than violating Rule 6 is violating Rule 6 AFTER a penalty makes it a 7 yd (or 12! or 17 yard) attempt.
7) The Devon Hester Rule- If there is a special teams player in the end zone on a FG attempt, it is probably a good idea to fake the kick.
8) Do the unpredictable. Once you are predictable you are dead.
9) Trading down in the draft is good.
10) Investing all of your resources in one player is (now, more than ever in the era of free agency) a mistake. Eli Manning, Herschel Walker, Ricky Williams... the teams that do the best are usually giving the pick and getting multiple players.
11) "Read and react" is for losers. Set the tone, dictate terms of engagement, let others copy your SB blueprint. By the time you copy someone else's, the league has figured out how to adjust, so you are wasting your time.
12) Defensive Coordinators make better head coaches and increase your chances for a SB championship.
13) Let the clock wind down to 3 seconds and kick your FG. I have never seen a team muff the (3rd down) attempt and kick on 4th down with the extra time that you left on the clock. I HAVE seen plenty of teams kick the FG and give the other team the oppty/win when they got their hands on the ball again. (ie Dallas Mon Night 2003)
14) The 2 week layover for the SB makes for a lousy game which improves the chances for the favorite.
15) Special teams are always underrated.
16) The only thing the prevent defense prevents you from doing is winning.
17) The only thing the prevent offense prevents you from doing is winning.
17a) The Kenny Holmes Rule- the only thing worse than the prevent offense is the prevent offense when your defense is exhausted/impaired by injury.
18) Players are told to play for 60 minutes. Yet who benches the head coach when he only coaches for 50?
19) The Fassel Rule of Prevent: It is always the coach's fault when a large lead is blown/the game is lost.
20) The Fassel Rule of December: Practice in December w/o pads- your players will appreciate it and win many more games for you with their fresh legs.
21) The Bill Walsh "Quality Win" (winning by 11+ points) is a necessary objective at all times because it enables you to win MORE games that are more hotly contested.
22) After 1st and Goal from the 1-2 yard line, if you fail to score a TD on your first three tries, kick the FG on 4th down.
23) The Carl Banks Rule- You cannot simply turn it on and turn it off in the NFL. Play every game and maintain/improve on your high level of play.
24) Second round draft picks are the best value in the draft. No sizzle, all steak.
25) # of headcases <= strong head coaches. (If you have a strong head coach you can have up to 1 head case in the locker room. If you have a weak head coach you cannot have any. A strong head coach with 2 or more head cases means a locker room infestation and problems.)
26) Defense wins championships.

Strahan and Keys Duet

Michael is not boring.

Strahan WFAN

Strahan was on WFAN a few days ago... 12 minutes of remarks.

summary- 1)Tiki has a lot of intelligence, worth listening to. 2)Shockey gets a bad rap, he is in a no-win situation, if the Giants win this year they should have won because they were the defending champs, if they lose it was because he came back and they lost the chemistry. He gets a raw deal. If he is unhappy let him play with another team. 3)Defending the title not my problem anymore, feels good! 4)Basketball at least has a decent rookie contract structure. 5)His new job means speaking out so if he offends some players, that comes with the territory.

In Memory of George Carlin 1937-2008