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Thursday, March 26, 2009

Where can the Giants trade up to?

Before this conversation of 'where the Giants can trade up to' even starts, let me preface it by saying that in general the second round is the best value in the draft. It is one of the rules. So for all of you yahoos (including Wonder) who want to trade up for the marquee player in Round #1, caveat emptor.

Now that that qualifier is out of the way, let's play fantasy GM for a moment or two. Understand that the draft value chart is not the be-all-end-all of precise measurement. But it is what we have. In my humble opinion it is flawed because it does not 'butterfly' properly (the difference in value between pick 6 and 7 has to be LARGER than the difference from pick 7 to 8). But we see all over the chart that the math is incorrect. We will leave it at that.

Back to the Giants, NYG24 has supplied us with the #s where we pick, and I am taking him at his word.

slot points
29> 640
45> 450
60> 300
91> 136
100> 100
129> 43
151> 31
164> 26
200> 11
238> 2
total = ~1740 points

So if the Giants wanted to pull a Mike Ditka and trade all of our picks to jump to the head of the class, we could get the #4 or #5 pick in the draft. NOT WORTH IT. This short-changes the skills of Reese. It does get a little more sane and palpable to want to package our #1, along with one of the #2's and one of the #3's.

#1 + #2 + #3 = pts ( moves you up to)
=====================================
29 + 45 + 91 = 1226 (11th or 12th pick)
29 + 45 +100 = 1191 (12th pick)
29 + 60 + 91 = 1076 (14th or 15th pick)
29 + 60 +100 = 1040 (15th pick)

The fact that the Giants got that #3 pick (100th selection) makes me think that Reese is more likely than not to play some poker and see about his options in moving up, because now he can package something together and not be left empty in later rounds. All he would need is a team that is willing to trade down somewhere in that 11-15 area without killing him for a SANE deal to get done. And once Reese is there, he can aim and fire point blank and get someone he covets while still having a 2nd and 3rd rounder left.

Another possibility not to dismiss is that Reese stands pat at 29 BUT he packages his 2's and 3's together for anything from #16 on down in the first round.

The Eagles love to trade down to the second round, and since they have two #1's, they might easily be enticed to trade down with the Giants for two #2s...... the Giants could trade their two #2's and a #4 for the 21st pick in the draft, simultaneously knock Philadelphia out of the WR selection for H-Bey and also keep #29 for themselves.

I do not remember the last time the Giants had 5 picks in the first three rounds. You have to go back to 1986 for that. (Before hitting the link, if you can name all of them, you are probably a liar! Hint: there were SIX, including 4 in Round 2.) If this draft were not so weak (as compared to last year, for example), I would prefer standing pat and just drafting 10 players and being loaded for many years to come.

Summary: Reese has many cards he can play. If he finds a team willing to trade down, he has the bullets to trade up. He can do so in a myriad number of ways. He can stay right where he is. He can use his #1 to move up or he can use his other picks. So he has a great deal of flexibility. Should be a very interesting afternoon.

14 comments:

Vinnie said...

Reese is definitely going to make a move. As nice as it would be to draft 10 players with all those picks it is not realistic. There is not enough room on the roster. I still think that he wants to go after one of the stud linebackers from USC and pick a receiver in the later rounds 2 - 4. It should be interesting and it certainly is a nice position to be in.

Andy F. said...

Defense wins championships. It is 25 years since the Giants drafted LBer #1. No argument from me.

Drew said...

compensatory picks cannot be traded. So if we move, it will be with our original picks.

Nature said...

Andy another CARL BANKS wouldn't hurt

xtian said...

for the 86 draft i remembered every one but erik howard. grrrr! btw, the nyg got 2 of those 2nd rounders from denver for the rights to gary zimmerman--future all-pro g-t--from the usfl who did not want to play the giants. philly picked up a nice little player you might recall, reggie white. also dallas picked up hershel walker by using a 5th rounder in 85 before the usfl disbanded.

i'm not gonna be surprised to see reese trade up for an impact slb or mlb. i also wouldn't be surprised to see him move up his 2nd and 3rd rounders [that he can] by trading his lower round picks or for next years draft. we simply cannot use all 10 of those picks.

xtian said...

oops. i didn't mean reese would trade next years picks to move up this year. i meant trade some of this years picks for next years. ie this years 5th for next years 4th.

NYG24 said...

I don't think Eagles and Giants would trade with each other concerning moving up in the first round. Mainly because I see both teams and especially if neither trades for a WR such as Boldin or Edwards before the draft takes place. Both teams are looking for a top receiver and both know the only way they can get one in the first round is by moving up to do so. And maybe even both are liable to try to do so?

Craig said...

the eagles and cowboys traded a few years ago. If the giants get 2 picks in the 15-25 range we could easily get a WR and USC LB. 2nd n 3rd for around 22 ish, and 1st and 2nd for 15ish would be alright, we wouldnt draft till the last pick of 3rd round but we will get better quality. OT is deep this year so if we keep a 2nd round pick i wanna see an OT there

Bob said...

Yes, a very interesting issue for JR.

If you look back thru history, the Giants success with their first round picks is about even with their second round picks. IE about as many second round picks have turned into major contributors as picks in the first round.

This suggests that we hold onto both our second round picks, and move up as high as we can in the first round by trading pick # 29 and everything else we have.

Given a limited draft class, I think this is the thinking man's strategy,

Bob said...

I did some further research on my recommendation above. In the past 15 years, only 57% of our first round draft picks have turned out to be solid contributors to the NYG.

We have had several first round duds EG: Wm Joseph, Ron Dayne, Tyronne Wheatly.

Whereas 75% of our second round picks have turned out to be solid team contributors. We have had many notable second round gems,
including Osi, Corey Webster, Strahan, Tiki, Toomer, Cris Snee, Cornelius Griffin(now with wash), & Joe Jerivicous.

I believe this confirms that we should hold on to BOTH of our second round picks. If we wish to trade up in the first round, use the third round & later picks packaged with pick #29 to try to get a higher first round pick.

Andy F. said...

Bob- You are a true adherent of Rule 24... here are the stats, from similar quant findings done a year earlier...
Believe in Second Round Draft Picks

Nature- yep, Carl Banks will work for me.

Drew, thanks for that clarification, appreciated. It will not hamper the Giants, as they have so much to move around with if they choose.

xtian, I remembered Howard, Collins and Pepper Johnson, but could not remember the other 3 if my life depended on it. Cmon, you remembered Lasker?!

NYG24- The Eagles love the second round. See the link above. Besides, what could possibly go wrong trading a draft pick with an intradivisional opponent? You mean like when the Giants traded their #2 overall pick in 1975 and Dallas took ... Randy White?!!!

Bob said...

Andy

yeah, we're very consistent with better second round success than picking in the first round. Another good example was in 1988 when the draft priority was the OL. We picked OL in the first & second round. The first round pick was T Eric Moore, who never really made it. The second round pick was T Jumbo Elliot who turned out to be a very good tackle. Crazy huh ?

Don't forget,our "punching bag", Dave Brown, was a NYG first round pick.

Andy F. said...

As we have said before, it is human nature... the first round is the sizzle and the second round is the steak. Teams covet. Fans covet. It is a very emotional time to go after that player who you think can change the team.

And then there are the players that are just below the radar, the guys with plenty of talent but just a little less splash than the round 1 guys from college. These guys know they have game. And the best thing that ever happened to them was getting picked in the second round. They have just a little less ego and a little more professionalism from getting picked on the second page instead of the front cover. There is certainly something to be said for not having the glare of the media on you.

Giants who played in Super Bowl XLII:

1st rounders:
Manning, Burress, Ross, McQuarters

2nd rounders:

Toomer, Snee, Strahan, Robbins, Mitchell, Umenyiora, Madison, Moss, Smith, Webster

Hmmm 4 first rounders, 10 second rounders. Accident?

xtian said...

andy, yes, i immediately ran off the names of dorsey, collins, pepper, lasker, and washington. lasker was the only one who did nothing which is probably why i remembered him. i forgot that they had 4 picks in the 2nd that year and thought they only had 3. i tried for a min and then gave up and when i saw howard... doh!

bob, jumbo certainly out shined moore, but though moore never made it as a tackle he did well as a guard.

ah, the 2007 also had shockey and kiwi who just happened to be hurt. so that's a little misleading when listing the #1 and #2s.

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