Who is Cliff Avril?

The 2009 NFL draft ink is barely dry, and they are already making comments. But it is far-fetched to draw too many conclusions this quickly.

It will still take a while to see just how good Wonder's Draft Analysis was for 2008. But some early returns are in, so we will cherry-pick...

One player touted in EIGHT POSTS was Cliff Avril. Wonder wanted the Giants to take him at the end of Round 2 (one of four players that were acceptable) and he went out of his way to remind everyone how well the Lions did by getting the LB/DE. IN APRIL 2008. Fast forward to June 2009:

Defensively, Lions pass rusher Cliff Avril tied for the rookie lead in sacks (five) and led all first-year players with four forced fumbles, but was only a third-round pick. The two defensive linemen who tied Avril with five sacks were drafted in the second (Tennessee's Jason Jones) and sixth rounds (Oakland's Trevor Scott).

2008 NFL Draft Preview- NY GIANTS ON THE CLOCK

1) NEEDS. The biggest offseason losses were Mitchell and Wilson. So LB and S are the biggest needs. Reese picked up Danny Clark and Sammy Knight to enable FLEXIBILITY in going after as much VALUE as possible. Those acquisitions are not long term answers, so you still have to expect the Giants to target those positions early. Reese is smart- he gets stopgaps so that he can maneuver on draft day.

2) Which returning starter is the WEAKEST LINK on DEFENSE? S James Butler. Butler is an overachieving UFA. While he is a competent tackler, his lack of speed is consistently a liability. The Giants can AND NEED to improve here.

3) Which returning starter is the WEAKEST LINK on OFFENSE? LT David Diehl. It pains me to say this because I am such a huge Illini fan, but I think that makes my objectivity even stronger here. David Diehl is an unbelievable 5th Round draft choice who has not missed a start in FIVE seasons (86 consecutive starts). Great Guard. Weak tackle. Too vulnerable on the edge. Second in the league in sacks allowed in 2007. Abused by Adalius Thomas in the Super Bowl. Reese loves Diehl for his work ethic and durability, but he'll be pragmatic and draft a LT HIGH. VERY HIGH.

4) PICK #31. Ultimatenyg's expert draft analyst is "Wonder." Wonder dissects the first round like this...You can easily see

6 OL (Long, Clady, Albert, Otah, Williams, Cherilus)
2 QB (Ryan, Flacco or more likely Brohm to GB)
3 DT (Dorsey, Ellis, Balmer)
4 DE (Gholston, Long, Merling, Harvey)
5 DB (100% RCromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, combo of 2 from Flowers/Talib/Cason/Phillips)
2 LB (Rivers, Mayo)
4 RB (McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, Jones)
2 TE (Keller, Davis)
4 WR (BUFFALO????+TENN+PHIL+WASH+DAL???? taking Thomas, Sweed, Hardy, Kelly)

That adds up to 33 players for 30 spots before the Giants pick. This means that at worst you could end up with LB Quentin Groves from Auburn or Safety Tyrell Johnson from Arkansas State. Wonder loves Groves. There is volatility in the pick but the upside is a total home run, great value at #31. On Johnson, he is a very good pick at #1, he STARTS AT SAFETY ON OPENING DAY and would not be able to get out of the starting lineup for years to come. Two keys before the Giants pick... who does Buffalo take at #11. Wonder thinks it is quite possible that they take WR Devin Thomas, and if they do it is CELEBRATION TIME IN EAST RUTHERFORD, because that means an extra team taking a WR and leaving a great oppty for other players to fall to the Giants. Second key... If Denver does NOT take Mayo it is possible he could fall all the way to the Giants.

The draft is loaded with Offensive Tackles; Gosder Cherilus (Boston College) can fall to #31 simply because there are 5 OLinemen rated above him by consensus.

WR James Hardy (Indiana) may somehow fall to #31, that is another Wonder steal at that slot. Take the tall 6'7" Hardy and now you can definitely trade Shockey, says Wonder. The same argument is even easier to see if TE Keller falls to #31.

5) PICK #63. Wonder has Bryant, Avril, Nicks and Barrett as potentially there and representing value for the Giants at this spot. My favorite is Barrett, because this is a Safety at the right spot and right time. He can get the help of Knight, does not need to be an immediate starter, he's a good quality pick that matches need and lastly you are not wasting a first rounder on a position like Safety. If the Giants are keyed on getting interior DL help (it depends on their outlook for Jay Alford), then Bryant is your answer.

6) PICKS ON DAY 2. Wonder offers the following Day 2 names as players representing value in later rounds: Carl Nicks, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, Cliff Avril, Jeremy Thompson, Kellen Davis, Mike Pollack, Chilo Rachal..one may be available in 3rd round if LUCKY...but..you also have Patrick Lee, Marcus Howard, Justin King (steal !!)...after that you have guys like Tyvon Branch, Donnie Avery, Brad Cottam, Eddie Royal, Jeremy Zuttah, Craig Stevens, Tom Zbikowski, Terrell Thomas...Mike McGlynn...ALL would have great value anytime after round 3...total speculation as what to expect, and who will fall in 5-7....have to wait until AFTER the first day is over to have any clue...

7) There are a few potential first rounders that Wonder says to avoid. They are LT Chris Williams, S Kenny Phillips, LB Dan Connor, WR Desean Jackson, TE Fred Davis and WR Malcolm Kelly.

8) Wonder separately points out a scenario in Round 1 where Oakland picking #4 would choose from Chris Long or Gholston, not care who it is, and let time expire to have the Chiefs pay more at #4 and let the Raiders save cap space too. The Top 10 salaries have gotten so out of hand that it is making a mockery of the 'reward' you get for picking high. Gene Upshaw and the Players Union are awol.

Summary- LB, S, OT are biggest needs. Groves, Johnson, Mayo, Cherilus and Barrett get the Wonder seal of approval for meeting those needs, if they are available.

Live draft coverage on Saturday and Sunday.

Wonder's NFL Draft Analysis: Top 5 picks on Defense by Position

DT: Dorsey/Ellis, Balmer, Bryant (true NOSE), Okam- out of shape, horrible at combine...but if someone like Parcells can kick his a** for a year, watch out...if not, out of league

DE: Gholston, Long, Merling (VERY underrated), Harvey (beast or bust), Cambell (beast or bust)

OLB: Rivers, Groves (CONV..huge potential or bust), Avril, Howard, Adibi/Wheeler

ILB: Mayo, Connor, Lofton, Crable, Bell

CB: DRCromartie, McKelvin, Jenkins, Cason, Talib/Flowers (BOTH need to play cover 2)

S: Demps, Johnson, Phillips, Morgan, Barrett (HUGE POTENTIAL...would be an all-pro after being on bench with BeleD**K for year or so..and learning...)

K: punter Brooks

don't take Dan Connor

Connor is establishment pick penn state blah blah, take Avril, bArrett or Bryant

WONDER'S PERSPECTIVE- Round #2

The Giants Pick at #63. Here is a list of people Wonder says if available at #63 the Giants are out of their mind not to take:

Bryant
Avril
Barrett
Nicks

This is the spot where I like Barrett. He is a good safety. When you have a need for Safety, taking someone at Round 2 is smart, not Round 1. According to Wonder (a diehard Jets fan and hater of ALL New England sports teams): "if the bastards grab Barrett.. I shoot myself." So here is to hoping that the Giants get Barrett at #63 and the Patriots do not take him at #62... for our sake AND Wonder's health. Wonder is hoping that both the Giants and Patriots pass on Barrett and that the Jets take him early in Round 3. That could happen because Barrett could easily be a third rounder from OTHERS PERCEPTIONS. If the Giants are able to get Barrett at the very last pick of Round 2 that is akin to a third round draft choice anyway, so get him there and have a smart player in Knight groom him.

Giants set up again for many good choices at #63

Cliff Avril OLB tweener, NT Red Bryant, S Barrett... yes I would draft a second Safety but they won't do that. Cannot run up middle against Bryant.

TAKE BARRETT OR BRYANT!

New York Giants NFL Draft 2008 Round 1 and Round 2 recap

The Giants missed a very good opportunity at #31 and went conservative with Phillips. Remember the reviews of Wonder as draft guru- Wonder may not be right, but he won't be wrong... at worst he is a push, meaning in this case another Safety like Tyrell Johnson will be just as productive if not more so as opposed to Phillips. The CB at #63 (Terrell Thomas) was a good pick. He has good speed and is a reliable tackler. Between him and Ross they will get it done. And that also leaves Webster in there to compete with them for jobs.

Wonder was surprised at how Quentin Groves dropped to the Jags at #52; he thinks it was probably due to teams not wanting to risk that much on a player that had a medical condition (heart procedure, fixed, Doctors gave clean bill of health).

Wonder was very pumped for the Giants to get Avril or Bryant at #63, and is willing to bet even money tomorrow at the beginning of Day 2 that the Miami Dolphins take one of those with the #64 pick. We will see.

The Steelers got Mendenhall and Sweed, a great draft. KC scooped up Dorsey, Albert and Flowers, a huge haul. The Redskins got Devin Thomas at #34 after trading down, a very nice move.

"The NFL GM's got it right for a change, did not bite on Connor in the first two rounds. Good for them not going for that Penn State LB 1st round bs."

almost on the clock for Round 3 for the New York Giants

This was Wonder's assessment for Day 2 made on Friday BEFORE the draft began:

6) PICKS ON DAY 2. Wonder offers the following Day 2 names as players representing value in later rounds: Carl Nicks, Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, Jordy Nelson, Curtis Lofton, Cliff Avril, Jeremy Thompson, Kellen Davis, Mike Pollak, Chilo Rachal..one may be available in 3rd round if LUCKY...but..you also have Patrick Lee, Marcus Howard, Justin King (steal !!)...after that you have guys like Tyvon Branch, Donnie Avery, Brad Cottam, Eddie Royal, Jeremy Zuttah, Craig Stevens, Tom Zbikowski, Terrell Thomas...Mike McGlynn...ALL would have great value anytime after round 3...total speculation as what to expect, and who will fall in 5-7....have to wait until AFTER the first day is over to have any clue...

let's go through them to see who is still there:
Tier #1 (Great Value in Round3): Carl Nicks, Jeremy Thompson, Kellen Davis (whichif taken puts talk about Shockey trade back on table), Marcus Howard, Justin King
Tier #2 (Great Value after Round3):Tyvon Branch, Craig Stevens, Mike McGlynn

Note that Wonder had Terrell Thomas as one of his preferred players for Day 2, so that the Gmen got him at the last pick of R2 is still pretty good, not a reach, not value, but nonetheless a solid pick.

Wonder's Random Day 2 comments on the NFL Draft

1) He likes the Mario Manningham pick at the end of the third round, good value. He thinks his teammate Arrington might be even better. Manningham is slower than expected, but has potential on upside to be a very good player. "Good Pick, I would have preferred Oniel Cousins but you cannot quarrel with taking Manningham there."

2) "The Giants should grab TE Kellen Davis in the 5th round (assuming he is still there) and then they can unload Shockey. Kellen Davis would be a great pick."

3) Kehl was a "Wonder-approved" move. That was "good value going up 7 picks to get him. He plays smart, pretty fast at that stage of the draft, played 4 years--- that is A LOT OF EXPERIENCE."

4) JOSH BARRETT IS STILL ON THE BOARD. This pick can make your entire draft with this value.

5) Detroit did great gtg Avril.

6) Eagles pick of Jack Ikeqwuono was a great pick at end of 4th Round. Tremendous upside. Could have been a first rounder or early second rounder but had medical issue, if that heals well it could have GREAT upside. Very smart risk at that (compensatory, end of 4th round) slot.

7) "KC did really well AGAIN today. Jamaal Charles, Brad Cottam (he's a horse and can block), steal end of Round 3 DaJuan Morgan, Will Franklin (big and fast)... ALL 7 of their (first 7) picks will make the team. This is going to be one of the best drafts by a single team I have seen in years."

8) Dolphins did great gtg Kendall Langford. Tremendous pick.

Enjoying this win one more day

I know a lot of you hate Dallas, making this a particularly sweet win. So let's enjoy this one a little more before moving on.

So many great comments yesterday.. we'd need 3 blog posts to recap them all.

1) I liked Dallas to win the game on Sunday, especially if Kenny Phillips could not play. Thankfully we did not see a lot of CC Brown. Given how important Phillips was (even playing HURT!), is there anyone who thinks we win that game WITHOUT him?!

2) The two things that held me back from calling for a Cowboys victory were:
(a) the road warriors. One blog commenter emailed with a remark that Eli Manning's 5 best games have come on the road. This is just a guess, but I'll hypothesize that this is indeed logical because Eli is the un-QB, the guy who is so laid back that you have to check to see if he has a pulse. Maybe when he is on the road he has to focus more on running the team, crowd noise and all. Remember him playing the Chargers in Qualcom 4 years ago, to all of the venom and noise from the crowd that did not take well to being spurned at the Draft Altar? That was his first whale of a game. Lambeau field in the playoffs? He just seems to focus more in the hardest playing conditions.
(b) Wade Phillips. If you flipped a coin a week before the game and gave this guy his pick of either team to coach, he could lose it for either side you gave him. When was the last time you felt his team overachieved? Simply stated, you are never out of it when he is on the other sidelines. Right now he seems inexorably tied to the misfortunes of Romo, but maybe it is the other way around.

3. The crew at ESPN (Chris Berman, Tom Jackson, Ditka, Johnson and Carter) had a little bit of a lovefest for the Giants last night. But this is where you have to appreciate the national perspective. They noted how the Giants got ripped to shreds on both sides of the line of scrimmage, but were stepping over themselves to point out how the Giants know how to win. This was a hallmark of the Parcells teams. They talked about the "look" of Eli on that last drive, that you just knew he was going to take the team down the field. I'll tell you who else "knew" ... Marvelous. He sends an email to three people as the final drive is beginning: "We have 2 plays to make 6 yds. Giants will NOT kick if we are stopped on 3rd down. NOTE--Giants are GOING to WIN this game." Sometimes you just know.

4) A few words on the good teams finding a way to win. How many times were we on the losing end of that kind of game where we win everything EXCEPT the game? You take these games and YOU MOVE ON. How many of you remember a game the 1990 Giants played against the Cardinals in Week 6? The Dominant Giants were 5-0, playing the 2-3 scrubs of Phoenix. Except the Giants came out as flat as a pancake, working so hard to be 5-0 and then about to lose to schtick dreck, at home no less, 19-10. It was ugly, pathetic. But out of nowhere with very little time left the Giants drive down the field and score to make it 19-17. They need the ball one more time, somehow they get their hands on it and make a 40 yarder with ~no time left on the clock to win the game. The Giants had NO BUSINESS WINNING THAT GAME, yet they did. The Giants got whooped for the first ~55 minutes and somehow pulled it out. Far be it for us to draw too many parallels between that game and this one two nights ago. We'll leave it with the understanding that teams that win championships will win games like this along the way.

5) Defense wins championships. Is Sheridan going to be able to fix it, coach these guys up? As long as you are winning now and improving, you can get into the playoffs and hopefully be playing the best football at that time. The Indianapolis Colts in 2006 had a garbage defense but won enough with Peyton to get to the playoffs.. then Sanders came back just in time to help fix the defense and the rest is history. We need our players back/healthy and then we'll see if they can gel.

6) The play-as-you-go payment plan is still in effect. We now play 3 teams that are 1-5 (and the one win coming from 2 of the teams playing one another). If anyone saw the destruction that the Saints delivered to the Eagles, you'll know that Week 6 is where this season really begins and we can start truly assessing what is under the hood.

7) The question posed by Nature on (who is all around better than Osi at) Defensive End is answered by Wonder:
Justin Tuck, Mario Williams, Julius Peppers, Jared Allen, Schobel (BUF)...REAL underrated...John Abraham, WHEN HEALTHY, is a STUD...Ogunleye (CHI), and so far Odom (CINC) has been a BEAST...Avril is "on his way" in another year or two...love Freeney's motor... Ty Warren MUCH BETTER RUN STUFFER and can pash rush if in a 4-3...still like SEYMOUR better all-around...also, Vandenbush is REALLY GOOD...and Jason Jones is Titans' "next up and coming stud DE."

Abraham is not my guy, he disappears too much. Schobel was on TV last Monday night vs NE, he is stuck in that no-name market; if he were in NY he would be Knighted. So interesting to see Wonder single out the 3-4 DEs who would have such an easier time as a 4-3 end. Playing anywhere on the DL in a 3-4 is the most thankless job. Speaking about DL, did you guys see how NT Jay Ratliff roasted us alive on Sunday night? He could not be stopped, he took our OL to school. The Giants have trouble with these disruptive NTs. If it starts at the DL, then the DL starts at NT.

8) Eli brilliance was worth revisiting. Wonder asks us- how many times did Brady get sacked on Sunday? Zero. How many times did Eli get sacked? Zero. But look at how Eli had no happy feet, completely calm, confident. Wonder could not stop raving about how well Manning played. In this blogger's opinion, some of the Eli over Brady comparison from W2 is a Wade Phillips vs a Rex Ryan blitz. Ryan has that unpredictable 'Ravens' scheme. Mike Martz broke down the film and compared Eli's calm leadership of the offense to that of Kurt Warner. We'll throw one last bone to Bradshaw- look at how he picks up the blitz perfectly on this drive.