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Thursday, January 24, 2008

The oddsmakers

Stop being mesmerized by the 12 point underdog status. Wake up and realize that the Jets were 16 pt dogs to the Colts, the Giants were 8 point dogs to the Bills, the Broncos were 12 point dogs to the Packers, the Patriots were ~14 point dogs to the Rams. The Super Bowl betting line is the most inefficient thing out there. It is amateur hour. It is simply there to BALANCE THE MONEY. And since everyone and their grandmother wants to have action on the game, you get more sloppy money on this event than any other game the entire year.

The point is that this can be a very competitive football game, just like what was incorrectly implied by the Dallas and GB lines. If the Giants (despite what Wade said) had lost to the weaker Cowboys (or Packers), would the best team have been playing the Patriots? And what would the line have been? IT WOULD HAVE BEEN LOWER because the world (for whatever reason) respects the Cowboys and Packers more than the Giants! And the Patriots would have been less of a favorite vs a team they would have likely had more of an advantage over!

Remember what Phil Simms said about the Patriots' remarks about the Giants before they played the Jaguars? See a previous post, remark #11 linked. Belichick: "They're the best team we've faced all year." And please remember that Belichick did not see Ahmad Bradshaw.

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