Dallas Preview

There are so many crosscurrents in this game. I can see certain things that get us optimistic, yet there are many other things that can be very sobering.

NEGATIVES:
1) 2 vs 6. Romo's sacks vs Manning's sacks. Despite a clear advantage of our defensive line, we only have 2 sacks on him... this needs to improve. Some of this is probably a holdover of the Kiwanuka experiment and Strahan's first game back. But just like in baseball, where good pitching beats good hitting, so does a good offensive line beat a good defensive line. THIS NEEDS TO CHANGE. UMENYIORA, STRAHAN, TUCK (and LB/SECONDARY BLITZ) NEEDS TO GET TO ROMO.
2) To say our secondary is banged up is an understatement. Webster is not getting a hurt Galloway today. Webster was one of the main reasons why the Giants got through TB and he will have to be the reason why we get through Dallas. Webster is going to get beat, that is not an issue. The question is how many times. If it is once, that means he is blanketing coverage MOST of the time, and we can live with that and win the game.
3) Against the best teams you need 60 mins. Against the best teams this year (Dallas twice, Packers, Pats) the Giants played with their opponent for 2-3 quarters and folded late. This is a hurdle the Giants have to get over.
4) Terry Glenn? Jerry Jones was talking him up Friday. But there is no way Jones would help the Giants by waking them up to an unforeseen threat... smokescreen? The Giants should and will single him until he can prove more than that.
5) DeMarcus Ware on David Diehl. As mentioned before, Diehl is a wonderful player but he is not an Offensive Tackle. Yes, he can sub there, he can play a game for you when someone else goes down, but today is when he is going to hurt you because he is going to require some help when (not if) Ware beats him.
6) Dallas knows us well enough to know that the key to disrupting Eli is not making him comfortable in the pocket and giving him lots of pressure/less time.

POSITIVES:
1) One of the reasons why bye teams do better against the wild card winner is that they have two weeks to prepare. Since the Giants and Dallas are division rivals who have played each other twice this season (contrast that with the other 3 games this weekend, where only SD and IND have faced each other once), it negates the preparation advantage that the Cowboys would normally have.
2) Bradshaw, Smith and Boss look to make strong contributions today. If it was me I would start Bradshaw because I think he matches up best against the speed of the Dallas defense. Boss will get a record number of receptions today (5+). Smith will continue to help move the sticks.
3) From Bob Papa- put the speed of Gerris Wilkinson on Jason Witten. Wilkinson has steadily improved and he gives the Giants secondary help in this way. If you can slide (double) coverage to Witten because TO is not an overwhelming threat, then use Wilkinson. In a perfect world, this is how the Giants are going to beat the Cowboys.

THE USUAL SUSPECTS (previously discussed positive themes reiterated):
4) Strahan started the season late and he has fresh legs, playing his best football.
5) Burress is playing better than the midseason injury swoon.
6) See the "Manning pump fake" entry earlier this week for continued ideas of his improvement.
7) Penalties are down this year.
8) ROAD WARRIORS.
9) Special teams have steadily improved as the season has wore on.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:
1) Pierce vs Barber. Don't let this guy be Romo's version of 'Brady to Faulk.' Is Pierce getting healthier?
2) Boss vs Williams
3) Toomer vs Reeves.

STATS:
1) Home (bye) teams are 14-6 the past 5 years. 30% chance for The Giants.
2) Team winning first two games is 11-6 in the third game when they play again in the postseason. 35% chance for the Giants.
3) Moneyline implies ~24% chance for the Giants.

SUMMARY:
If the Giants had a healthy Madison in there vs TO I would feel so much better and bullish the Giants. As the week wore on and Madison became more and more "doubtful," my optimism waned. There are plenty of variables which are simply not known- how effective are TO and Glenn? Does Bradshaw start? (That won't happen but if it did I would like the Giants more.) Does Dallas get a lot of pressure on Manning and give us old Eli? Do we get Eli the time for him to be the new pump-fake Eli? Too many questions for me. Last week I called for a Giant win vs TB, this week I cannot be that bold. I do think it is possible, and greater a chance than the oddsmakers give us. I like the confidence of the Giants, but as a reminder, what wildcard winner ever had a lack of confidence after a playoff win? If the Giants do everything right we win a close game. If Dallas does everything right we get killed.

PREDICTION:
Very close game with a respectable shot at winning the game. Dallas 30 Giants 26. GO GIANTS!

I FEEL THE NEED FOR SPEED

The Kiss of Death

Last week Blezow had the Bucs. Not. This week he has jumped back on the Giants bandwagon, ugh. And to make matters worse, 9 out of 10 NYPost handicappers take the Gmen. Welcome to the party. For our sake let's hope they are not all too late. (Insert> saw that 6 out of 9 Daily News geniuses have the Cowboys, so that is a positive for the gmen.)

Saw another interesting remark from Ronde Barber on Ahmad Bradshaw.... “That kid is going to be great," Barber gushed. “We kept on hitting him and pounding him and he kept going forward, fighting for yards." Earth to Gilbride and Coughlin- Use him for pass catches out of the backfield. He handles the ball better than Jacobs and is much better in open space. Okay, he is much better in closed space too, but that is a matter for next season. What is truly remarkable about this Bradshaw kid is that everyone had this figured out EXCEPT the coaching staff. It took Jacobs getting hurt in Buffalo and Ward already on injured reserve for him to get a chance. If that did not happen they still would have him in mothballs.

And a final sober note. With Dockery officially out and Madison still ailing, this is going to be one big adventure Sunday in the secondary. Maybe if we just send 12 guys on the pass rush and sack Romo we won't have any problems.

Shockey

Shockey has resurfaced in the media because the last game the Giants played against the Boys, he had 12 receptions for 129 yards. Yesterday Arthur Staple of Newsday stirred up the pot by theorizing that the Giants are doing just fine without Shockey, that maybe the outspoken tight end is all hat and no cattle. And then I got an email last night from one of the blog readers here who proposed that just maybe having "one less alpha male in the huddle" could be helping Eli and the offense.

In my humble opinion, it is incorrect to believe that any success is happening BECAUSE Shockey is out and was in some way hindering the team when he was playing.

Let's take a step back. On Sunday Dec 16 Shockey broke his leg in the Redskin game and is out for the season. On Monday Dec 17 I opined here (link) exactly what has taken place, that losing Shockey was not a news item at all! Coughlin and Gilbride TOTALLY WASTED THIS PROBOWLER'S TALENTS. And the proof is in exactly what HAS transpired, what has actually happened to cause this question to surface in the media. The simple MEDIA logic is that if we are doing the same or even better without Shockey, that he is not great, that he is not important. How can that possibly be? How can a Pro Bowl player NOT be missed? Easy! When you do not use him like a PRO BOWLER should be used. As I pointed out in the post almost a month ago, Shockey had one reception for FOUR FREAKIN' YARDS the previous week and two receptions for EIGHTEEN freakin' yards against Washington before getting hurt. He became a better blocker and was being used in the running game far more often than on pass routes. What a waste! Every time I watch a NYG game where Madden is providing color, I always seem to hear from him something like this: "You have to get Shockey involved early." The operative word here is early. Because if you get him involved late (or never, as a 1 or 2 reception game implies!), his production drops off and you are not utilizing his natural skills which make him such a force. You also allow the rest of the defense the numbers to press the rest of the offense.

Separately, Staple makes the error of assuming that the pick by Sharper vs Minnesota was about Shockey not going hot- wrong! The coaches pointed out that Manning was in error for going hot because the blitz did not happen. (And the fact that Manning telegraphed his pass to Sharper did not help either. Sharper went with Manning's eyes on the throw, NOT with Shockey's body.)

As far as the offense now hitting on all cylinders without him, I have already speculated that the Manning pump-fake might be partially responsible for that. Add Burress getting healthier and more productive, add Smith back as a viable 3rd WR, add Lightning Bradshaw... hmmm, I just wonder where the offense would be WITH Shockey?! I wonder where Shockey would be with a QB who used the pump-fake on his defender?!

BOTTOMLINE: Shockey's diminished role was the sin which we now do not feel because we were feeling it for so many weeks already.

Random Items vs Dallas

1) O'Hara more likely to dress/play this weekend, Madison still looking less likely.
2) TO is playing, although he did not practice. Kareem McKenzie dnp either, but will likely practice tomorrow.
3) The line has moved to -9. All 4 dogs are +9 or more this weekend.
4) Terry Glenn is expected to play.
5) There is interest in Jason Garrett (interviewed already by 2 teams) and there is alleged interest in Spagnuolo by the Falcons (not allowed to interview until season for Giants is over).
6) Wade Phillips: "Strahan plays the run as good as anybody that I have ever seen that is a quote ‘pass rusher.’ He really plays the run well, too. I am certainly impressed with him." Having Strahan on one side of the line almost shuts down running to 40% of the field.. he is that good. I am not sure if we win last weekend w/o him. He easily got the most pressure on Garcia of anyone.
7) Great interview with Ahmad Bradshaw linked. In 2000 they tried to name Dayne and Barber "Thunder and Lightning," but it was more like Thud and Lightning. Jacobs and Bradshaw are the real Thunder and Lightning.
8) Bob Popa points out that Gerris Wilkinson has the speed to match up against Witten.
9) Shannon Sharpe had nice praise for Kevin Boss... runs nice routes, blocking is getting better each week, can be a very good TE in this league.

The Manning Pump Fake

Tom Coughlin on Eli Manning's performance vs Tampa Bay: "One of the best I've seen with regard to his utilization of his eyes and his pump-faking and pulling defenders out of position."

This is huge... is necessity the mother of invention? Could it be that the Giants coaches saw all of the cheating and the humongous turnover advantage of the Bucs and said to Eli- YOU MUST LOOK OFF DEFENDERS!...???...!!!

What took so long? Darren Sharper? LaRon Landry? Could it be that Ronde Barber and Company forced Eli Manning to get religion? If this is true, let's watch next game and see if he can look off more defenders and create more space for his targets. Of particular note is the play linked here (3:05 time) where the Giants go up 24-7 on the TD pass to Toomer. Manning fakes a throw to Boss, pulling away Barber long enough to give Toomer the lane for the catch. In watching the replay, what gets my attention is the crowded space of a 3rd and goal play from the 4 yd line with everyone breathing down everyone else's neck... w/o the look off, there is no way Toomer gets that ball- Barber is Toomer's ORIGINAL assignment!

In another play (0:46 time), Manning pump fakes, draws #26 to break in and commit to the pass too early, which then allows Smith to get clear for an extra few steps sideways so that he is able to make the catch. And you can certainly argue that the yards after catch are completely caused by the pump fake, because w/o it the play is either an INT, most likely a broken up pass, or at best a caught ball w Smith immediately brought down.

Jim Mora also remarks that was has impressed him about Manning is how he has done so well the past two weeks vs two very good defenses in the Patriots and Bucs. I do not believe yet, but I certainly see the first signs of improvement in a long while.

We have reached the beginning of the competition

We spend all year following the team, the draft, the player moves, the holdouts, camp, the games... for this moment. Not the wild card round. The Divisional Playoff Round. You see, any piece of garbage can limp into or make the playoffs, as the Giants of 2005 and 2006 proved! This is where the playoffs really begin. This is where the dreams of a championship begin. Considering how many wild card teams have won the Super Bowl, it is not just about the bye anymore. If you use your momentum from the bye correctly, you can upend the #1 or #2 and shock the world. It can be done.

For the Giants, the (very close) loss to the Patriots makes it possible to believe. Without that game, there would be doubts lingering in all of us. But right now any Giant fan knows it is possible. Probable? No. Possible? Yes. The Giants are 3-1 underdogs this Sunday in Dallas. There is value there. If the Giants play this game 4 times, they will win it more than once. Maybe not twice, maybe somewhere between once and twice in 4 tries. It can happen. Lots of good things have to happen.

One of them may be happening right now. Click on Link. Yes, TO's status is questionable. Since it is the playoffs, I think he will play. But even if he plays, if he is only 90% that extra 10% lost could be the difference between him killing us and it going down to the wire.

When one thinks of the Cowboys, it is easy to see how the limo ride they took to the playoffs is hitting a few potholes. They were lucky to get out of the Lion game with a last second win. They were outplayed by the Eagles in a loss. They took most of the game off vs the Redskins. TO is not 100%. Romo hurt his thumb. Simms remarks that teams around the league have caught up to their offense. The Cowboys are an excellent team, but the point is they are vulnerable.

Contrast that with the Giants. A come from behind victory over Buffalo in horrendous weather on the road. The Patriots revelation game. Beating a Tampa Bay team which had one of the best defenses in the league, despite a slow start and the loss of a few starters to injuries. The Giants are playing their best football at the most important time of year. They are an improved team from when they played the Cowboys Week 10 and certainly from Week 1. Has Dallas improved since Week 10? If they have, they certainly are not as improved as the Giants.

And then there is Eli Manning. His passer rating the last two weeks is the highest it has been the entire season. (See Link) With a 119 vs the Pats and a 117 against TB, he is finding QB religion. If Eli looks off one side of the field, scrambles for a first down, or pump fakes to throw off defenders one more time I may have to find Eli religion.

Throw in Bradshaw, Smith and Boss.

Anything is possible.

NYG 24 TB 14

Very nice all around performance. Video Link. Manning and Webster, the two most volatile players out there for the team, played very well and the game fell our way as a result. TB played to pick on these two players- (1) They picked on Manning by putting 8 and sometimes 9 men in the box to force Manning to throw the ball. (2) They picked on Webster by throwing to Galloway (despite reports of him reinjuring his shoulder... Gruden said in postgame press conference that "you need two arms to catch the ball"). Both players not only held their own but were the stars of the game.

Moments of note:
1) Early on, Gilbride is very conservative. To make matters worse, he calls for a run outside (twice in 1st half) that works horribly for losses. If you watched the video by Carl Banks and Bob Papa you would see that Banks specifically warned against this for reasons I will not elaborate for now.

2) TB gives Manning the underneath stuff and we went underneath. Breakthrough. Steve Smith and Amani Toomer made some big catches today. Boss and Burress did as well. Jacobs' catch for a TD was thrown low by Manning (Manning seems to have a habit of throwing too low or into the ground on these dump offs to his RB, the only negative in an otherwise great outing for Manning). Kudos to Manning, using the pump fake to negate the TB secondary from jumping the telegraphed routes. On the last TD to Toomer, Manning looked left and then went right to Toomer, keeping the route fresh.

3) Strahan had a key set of two plays where he singlehandedly got us off the field. On 2nd down he sacks Garcia (only time of the game). On 3rd down he is not deked by the screen, and tackles the RB from behind after simultaneously pressuring Garcia!

4) 3 turnovers for the Giants vs TB none. Huge. TB was supposed to have the edge statistically here, so go figure.

5) Pierce is playing hobbled. He looked mediocre at best, a step too slow. Watch out for this next weekend.

6) Our offensive line settled down after getting blitzkrieged early. Using the short pass to slow these guys up really helped keep them off balance.

7) Some penalties crept into the game for us but none of them cost us too much in this game. 15 yarder by Cofield a questionable call but as unnecessary anyway, so it is on him.

8) Beware the prevent offense and prevent defense. The 7 pt score to go up 24-7 with ~9 mins left in game was a dagger, but the playcalling from that point did get stale. One more first down by Eli and the game is over without requiring a late INT by McQuarters.

9) The Giants did not come into this game stoked emotionally. They took the Bucs' best shot early, withstood that onslaught, and then kept playing at a pretty high level thereafter. This is a good sign. I do not think that the Giants are fat and happy. When they play on the road they seem to dig themselves into the trenches and despite giving up these early scores (see earlier blog posts, ie to Bears, Bills, Eagles, Bucs, Boys etc...) they keep battling.

10) Bradshaw off the bench gives this running game some jukes, some cuts, some speed and plenty of grit too. He simply makes the first guy miss, and that means a loss of 2 becomes a gain of 4. Huge help in H2. No offense to Brandon Jacobs, but by the time Jacobs would be hitting the hole on the same type of play, Bradshaw would already be in the Bucs' secondary. As long as this RB can pick up the blitz and hold onto the ball, he needs to see more time.

You are Tomlin, 10:25 left in the game, what do you do?

You have just scored a TD to make it 28-23. You are Tomlin, 10:25 left in the game, what do you do? KICK THE EXTRA POINT MEATHEAD! Click on this link and read rule #6 if you do not know why. Instead, we watch Tomlin go for the 2, wrong! Penalty on the attempt, now it is at the 12 yard line. KICK THE EXTRA POINT MEATHEAD! Somehow, Tomlin becomes psychotic and delusional, thinking that he is only scoring one FG left in the next 10+ minutes (his team would touch the ball THREE more times, mind you!), so he goes for the 2 AGAIN from the 12! Incredible. We will erect a monument to this, maybe even rename rule #6 as the Mike Tomlin Rule... because what ensues is classic punishment for going for the 2. The Steelers score a TD on the NEXT DRIVE. But now they are up by only 1! And with ~ 6 mins left in this situation the difference between 2 and 3 almost forces you to go for the 2 now, which he does, and misses. If they had done the correct thing at 10:25 left, they collect the extra point BOTH times and are up by 3, which likely pushes this game to OT, because a late Jax FG seals the game at 31-29. Instead the Steelers lose. The only thing more insane than going for the 2 with 10:25 left down by 5 is going for the 2 when you are pushed back to the 12 yard line. There is simply too much time left and being on "4" points instead of 5 is an important number too.

Last comments before TB, video breakdown, and LaRon Landry

Carl Banks breaks down 2 plays about TB

The loss of Madison hurts because Webster is vulnerable and makes a thin secondary even thinner. Manning needs to play with a sense of urgency because it does not get any more urgent than the finality of the playoffs. If the Giants cannot get past TB, then we certainly have no right talking about GB, DAL, NE, IND. WIN THE GAME AND MOVE ON.

Some remarks on the SEA-WASH game... you could use the video of this game as a clinic for all that is important to winning in the NFL. SEA is killing the Skins, but does not put them away and is only leading 13-0 midway thru 3 quarters. One drive for a TD and then an INT enable the Skins to steal the lead 14-13, and like that in a few minutes an entire game's advantage is gone! And that is when the game first got interesting... A special teams gaffe by SEA on the ensuing KO nearly blew the doors open for Washington when SEA was unable to field a kickoff and gave the ball to the Skins at the SEA 13 yd line. 4 plays later SEA had the ball back when Washington could not move the ball and the kicker had missed the FG! SEA drives the ball downfield, makes a 2 pt conversion, and what was looking like a meltdown for Seattle is now a 21-14 lead. And then in equally stunning fashion, the Skins battle back, drive the ball to the 46 yd line, Collins throws a long pass down the right sideline to Moss. Trufant INTs. No problem, this is like a quickkick, tackle the guy at the 20 yd line, stop them, you will still have field position and you are only down by a score. NOT. Santana Moss makes a delayed, half-hearted attempt to tackle Trufant (Collinsworth: "looks like he gave up on the play"), and the next thing you know he runs 80 yards down the sideline for a TD. The line of scrimmage was near the 50! So the entire offense is guilty of giving up on a single play, and this was the dagger. A game which could have been 21-13 Washington was now 28-14 Seattle in a matter of minutes. ONE MORE THING- LaRon Landry. He plays centerfield and made two picks of Hasselbeck by reading his EYES. He did the same thing to Manning. In the NFL if you do not look off the safety they will punish you. The final score may hide that in this game, but in games against better opponents who do not make mistakes you will lose because of that.

NYG injury update, video clips

Mitchell may play, O'Hara and Madison still doubtful.

Pregame Playoff Video:

Baldinger and Sharpe break down the Bucs-Giants game

David Diehl talks about TBay, etc...

NFL Network preview of TB-NY

In Eli We Must Trust

Good article by Serby a few weeks ago. Is Eli the Man? Serby has a habit of doing a lot of puff pieces, but we have some pretty good sound bites in here from Eli.

Tampa Bay Sunday 1PM

The Giants are +3. In some of our team's recent road games we have been favored correctly over teams like the Bears and the Bills. Of course the Bucs are not as weak as those two teams, but I am not impressed by them just the same.

1)I think that in a 16 game season with all the turnover of free agency you have to keep playing and keep improving every week. the Giants have historically had a poor record the game after a bye because they lost the speed of the game and need to keep playing to get better. So here it is the Giants came from behind with a spirited win over the Bills and played a lot of excellent football vs the Pats. This is a positive.

2) TB did the opposite. They went into hibernation, benched many starters and pissed away (2 weeks with) the 49er and Panthers games after sewing up their division. You lose speed and timing that way.

3) The Giants are getting more sane practices from Coughlin this year in the later months of the season (a la leadership council and Giants administration mandate to work better w the players), meaning they are more rested and fresh for games than ANY of the 3 prior seasons. Late last season they would show up for the first series and then be flat. Now they have legs underneath them and u r seeing 60 mins.

4) This team is playing for Coughlin.

5) The Giants are playing their best football of the year right now.

6) Secret weapon Ahmad Bradshaw. He was held out to rest his injured calf, but he is practicing this week and he has the speed to match the speed of the Bucs defense.

7) If you rush Garcia on the end he likes squeezing out and scrambling/passing on the run. Justin Tuck will be rushed up the middle and that is how you have to get Garcia.

8) The (mild FL) weather seems to help Manning.

9) The Giants loss helps... I do not see them coming out flat... they have not lost twice in a row since the beginning of the season.

10) I understand that Burress is practicing (he practiced today). He is better and the Giants' passing game is better. Other players like Butler, Moss and Dockery are practicing after being held out last week. O'Hara may play with a brace. I suspect if Mitchell needs a brace they would go with Wilkinson, who should benefit from getting snaps with the first team. Having that 8th day between games is a huge boost to all of these guys.

11) The Giants are 7-1 on the road and do not see that as an obstacle.

I like the Giants this weekend. Tell me how Eli plays and I will tell you with far more certainty what the outcome is. If Eli plays 3 quarters we win, if he plays 2 quarters we will be in a squeaker and likely lose. Either way, if we cannot get past TB we do not deserve the right to play Dallas or GB the following week anyway. After Game 10, I knew we would be right here on the road in the wild card game. What I did not know was whether we would use the last 6 games as a springboard... the Bills and Pats games answered that question and I therefore have to call for a victory on Sunday, for better or worse.

Scouts Inc. ranks the playoff defenses

Team DL LB DB Total
1. Dallas Cowboys 5 1 6 12
1. Green Bay Packers 6 4 2 12
3. San Diego Chargers 4 2 7 13
4. NE Patriots 2 8 4 14
5. Indianapolis Colts 11 6 1 18
5. Seattle Seahawks 8 5 5 18
7. Pittsburgh Steelers 9 3 8 20
8. Tennessee Titans 3 7 11 21
9. New York Giants 1 10 12 23
10. TB Buccaneers 12 9 3 24
11. Jcksnville Jaguars 7 11 9 27
12. Wshngtn Redskins 10 12 10 30

Scouts Inc. ranked the best team 1 thru worst team 12. While the Giants defensive line was given a flattering recognition for tops rating, the LBs and Secondary were given weak ratings. What does this all mean? It means that the Giants defense needs young players like Ross and Wilkinson to step up, and it also means that whether we want to acknowledge it or not, Manning has to show up every playoff game because the defense will not be able to win it on its own.

Note also the lack of respect for the TB defensive line and respect for their secondary. The Giants need to pound the ball all day Sunday and set up playaction for Manning.

Scouts Inc. remarks on individual units:

DL: The New York defense started to gel during a Week 3 win over division rival Washington, and the Giants haven't looked back. They lead the league with 53 sacks, thanks in large part to the trio of DEs Osi Umenyiora, Michael Strahan and Justin Tuck. The overall talent of the group makes it hard for opposing offensive lines to concentrate on a single player. Many offensive coordinators have to adjust their protections and keep extra blockers in to counter this outstanding defensive unit. This front four also is stout against the run, yielding only 97.7 yards per game.

LB: The Giants are led by slightly undersized MLB Antonio Pierce, who can struggle when taking on blockers but knows how to get to the ballcarrier and is extremely active. WLB Kawika Mitchell moved from the inside to the outside when he arrived from Kansas City, and it is a more natural position for him. He is more effective going forward than he is dropping into space, but like SLB Reggie Torbor, he lacks premier instincts and technique.

DB: There is some young talent in the Giants' secondary, but overall, this area is a weakness for New York. The secondary would be exposed further were it not for the Giants' outstanding pass rush. First-round CB Aaron Ross looks like a keeper and is a great blend of size, toughness and speed. More seasoning, specifically in the playoffs, should do him a lot of good.

The Eli Manning #

Team rating=

Pats = 3.99
Cowboys = 3.6
TB = 2.5

Take the # of quarters that Eli plays (well) and if that is greater than the opponent's team rating then Giants "can" win. In last week's game, for example, Eli played for 3 quarters, 3 < 3.99 so the Pats win. (Eli had to play 4 quarters for the Giants to pull off the win.)

Eli is simply inconsistent, so if you know whether he is showing up and for how long, that imo will dictate success of the team or not. In this weekend's game vs TB, if Eli plays 3 quarters vs TB (2.5), 3>2.5 so the Giants win. If Manning plays 2 quarters it rates to be insufficient. Obviously there is no magic formula, but the point of this is to highlight the acute nature of Manning as the weakest link in the Giants chain for winning and losing. His play is so volatile, and the team is dependent upon him to come through for success. It also articulates why predicting Giants performance this year is hit and miss. If Eli is there, the Giants compete; if he is not, the Giants are not there either.