These are the games that give you nightmares. You are the better team and you lose. The Titans self-destructed. They marched up and down the field a million times (nearly DOUBLE THE YARDAGE, 391 yds to 211 yds) and kept on sabotaging themselves over and over. Yes, the Ravens deserve credit for hanging in there and doing what they needed to win, but it was Tenn who lost the game. Collins makes one very bad pass off the back foot for an INT, and then TWO fumbles in the red zone kill potential TDs, one of them at the 1 yard line. Am very grateful that wasn't the Giants out there. We've had our share of playoff games where we were the better team that came up with less points. Flipper Anderson. SF 39 NYG 38. Those are two that come to mind. Many Giants players felt the Flipper Anderson year was a Super Bowl team. I agree. And the Jan 2003 loss to SF was a wound that was only healed by the Super Bowl XLII win. I still feel that the offense that year was so potent, that anything was possible on the upside.
They will be talking about the delay of game that was not called on the final Raven drive (Heap 23 yard reception for key 3rd down conversion). This is the kind of brown that I talk about when you shoot for quality wins of more than 10 points instead of the prevent. Now obviously this was not a game where Tenn was ever in the prevent, but the point is that when you blow chances, other insanities out of your control will kill you.
And what about the loss of rookie Pro Bowl RB Chris Johnson?!! If he does not go down with a sprained(?) ankle, the Titans may STILL win this game going away! YOU NEED LUCK. The Ravens got this one with heart and effort and HAD PLENTY OF HELP FROM THE FOOTBALL GODS. They are not a good enough team to win it all because (a) their offense (which we saw earlier this season) is not strong enough and (b) their defense, while very good, can get gashed (as teams like the Giants and even the Titans today proved). No, we should not look past the Eagles tomorrow, but I would not be afraid of facing the Ravens in Tampa should that occur. (Talk about Deja Vu 8 years later?!! There already has been plenty for the Ravens, beating the Titans in the divisional round when they were not the better team THAT year either!) If the Steelers win tomorrow, they will handle the Ravens, barring another series of incredible Titan-like events.
Separately, I was really pulling for the Titans today, because I am a big Collins fan. He made some poor decisions throwing into double coverage downfield, but barring that, he played very well and did what needed to be done for his team to win. Without a credible running game in the second half he carried the team on his back and two fumbles by teammates killed his oppty to get back to the big game. Tenn, the #1 seed is gone. I hope the Giants were taking notes on how important it is to execute and FINISH.
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Baltimore 13 Tennessee 10
Breaking Tendency- Jim Johnson and Bill Walsh
NFL.com has a very good article on Philadelphia's zone blitz scheme.
There are two words which define the article: BREAKING TENDENCY.
Even an old veteran defensive coordinator like Jim Johnson knows that he may have a good system that works, but it is useless if it is predictable. If you do not break tendency in this league you are dead. There is enough film study and statistics going on for these players on both sides of the ball to get an advantage from your formation and playcalling tendencies. What makes the play of the Giants offensive line so valuable is that they as a unit can sniff out these maneuvers and adjust on the fly. Now the Giants have on film an example of where the Eagles will run that blitz out of their base defense. And know that truly anything is possible. While that makes it harder for Johnson to truly 'surprise' the Giants, it also gives Johnson a general WIDER edge: his defensive tendencies are muddled enough to keep the Giants off-balance and unable to rely on any given assumption. THAT IS THE GOAL. The best pattern is NO pattern. Look at your own playcalling and make sure it is not embedded with tendency.
One of my favorite plays demonstrating the vital importance of tendency was the interception and TD by little-used LB Jack Squirek of the Oakland Raiders in Super Bowl XVIII. The Redskins used a play earlier in the year with 3 WRs and scatback RB Joe Washington. The Raiders studied the play and spotted the change in personnel near the end of the first half. They put in Squirek (who was better in pass coverage) and told him to play Joe Washington on tight man coverage. The result was an easy pick for an INT TD to turn the game into a 21-3 halftime rout on their way to a 38-9 win.
Brian remarked a while back about how we may be able to see 3 HOFers from one draft class of 4 people. Well, as Parcells (and others here) would bark, Webster and Jacobs have a long way to go before they get to Canton, and Tuck has a little more work to do, while we are at it. That reminded me of the story of Greg Cook. Greg Cook is the poster-child for warning anyone before they anoint any budding star in the NFL. Cook's rotator cuff makes Sehorn's ACL/MCL tear seem like child's play. It is a reminder of how we plan and the game of football laughs.
Inside the mind of one of the greats, Bill Walsh.
The article above retells the story of Cook, but also delves into the discussion of tendencies. Walsh lets you inside the mind of a great game planner. The setting up of the ball underneath just as soon as he pushes the LBers out in coverage is critical to understanding how you scheme an offense. Madden remarked in the Carolina-NYG game how he does not understand why teams don't run the play again if it worked. You can do that, as long as THAT is a NEW tendency, not to break old tendency. What, do you think Pierce is not going to recognize the exact same formation and call it out to the entire defense for what is coming? Bill Walsh won three Super Bowls and his immediate successor won a fourth. He did it by staying one step ahead of the opponent.
Friday, January 9, 2009
Deja Blue All Over Again
I am at peace. I have serenity within my Giant madness...
So many things about this game are IDENTICAL. THE GIANTS GET A DO OVER.
This is a total gift, having seen them in the exact same conditions. We get to turn back time and play the exact same game over again and prove that W14 was a bad day at the office, that THIS Sunday is the real Giants. This game is a gift. If we waste the gift, nobody to look at except ourselves. And since the Gmen are the better team they will take advantage of this gift and win.
The wind means it will be a tighter game, less points likely. No bet, the gmen could win a bleeder as much as they could win big. Could be Giants 13-10. The wind means Eli will only be able to burn them deep/stretch the field when they load the box in 2 out of 4 quarters. It shortens the game, just like W14. But Jacobs will be back and he will be bad, they'll need 8, prob 9 to stop him, so Eli will have opptys. In the wind, you simply have to do the things we talked about ad infinitum. If my friend Gilbrown has learned ANYTHING from W14, he should be fine. and we should kick their brown. W/o the wind I really felt good about the outcome, with the wind, I feel we will have some struggling moments but should come out on top nonetheless. The giants are the better team... The Giants had the same exact opponent in the same exact stadium with the same exact manpower loss (Burress) and the same exact weather conditions.... ya think they could learn about what they did wrong and what they need to correct? OF COURSE.
NO EXCUSES, it is ALL on the Giants and their coaches for not getting it done if they somehow fall short. They will get it done, I have enough confidence in all of them, and in this spot, I do have (barely) enough confidence in Gilbrown because he had 5 weeks to figure it all out. If he does not get it now, then shame on him. But with the better skilled players, Spags will certainly figure out ways (esp with Cofield and Pierce and Robbins (and Tuck?!) healthier) to stop McNabb and Westbrook.
A shout out to Ron, who points out that "McNabb is most dangerous when he runs outside on 2nd down and gets his 8 or 9 yards rushing to set up a short 3rd down play..and since he has turned his game around after the benching he has been doing that every game."
Reread the postgame of the Eagles in W14 for some perspective on what was learned. Wake up and smell the Bradshaw. There are so many ways to improve from the last game we played vs this team. It is all there for them to figure out. Rest easy, Giants fans. The element of surprise is essentially gone. Coughlin is always stressing preparation. They should be prepared and the the Giants will win. Bring it! Next stop, NFC Championship.
Some comments from your questions
Someone questioned Tomlinson's future in SD...and Chargers in general..first, let me restate the age-old axiom that RB's get OLD overnight...LT was GREAT/AWESOME..but as he gets to the wrong side of 30, the hits and the injuries take their toll...the knee last year was bad enough..but the TOE injury this year almost made him invisible/slow at times..and when he finally seems his old self, he pulls/tears a groin tendon..pretty sad for him..as for SD, they will be OK if, and only if, they remember Bennett is part of their team..they MUST run the ball up the gut a little to keep Pitt honest..but keep Sproles for kick returns, draws, flares, etc...also, SD must THROW the ball to win..which means PASS PROTECT..if they can, they have a puncher's chance...they will need to sign a free agent runner or draft a "big" guy as Sproles CANNOT carry the load...let LT carry about 15 times a game if he heals ok...now, back to our JINTS !!!
Another reader questioned the Eagles' LB corps vs. the NY LB's..sorry, guys, but it's not close..the PHIL LB's are MUCH more athletic and capable of "dropping into coverage" or covering the RB out in the flat..Pierce is great as a leader and run-stuffer, but he CANNOT RUN..the good news is that Spags KNOWS this and his DEF game-plan does NOT call for him OR the other LB's to "cover" very much...but he does want them TO HIT after short Phil. completions...as for our game, I EXPECT THE G-MEN to come out smoking on BOTH lines of scrimmage..run Jacobs, soften up their D, and then go play-action...I think "waggles" to Boss will work EXTEMELY well as they overpursue...play fake to left, semi-rollout/bootleg to right, and have Smith and/or Boss coming from the LEFT/strong side across the field..at same time, have Smith in slot to right, and run a double move to a "skinny post"..the pressure on the safety will be IMPOSSIBLE to handle and Jints should exploit this at least 3-4 times during the game..also, the ONLY guy that really worries me is NOT Westbrook...he will be "game-planned" for..and it's not Jackson as he's a "home-run" hitter we MUST contain..but AVANT can MOVE THE CHAINS...and we CANNOT let McNabb convert those 3rd down plays with passes to AVANT for 8-10 yds...they WILL NOT be able to run...soooo, stop the checkdowns/screens to Westbrook, the deep bomb to Jackson, and focus on Avant on 3rd down...and Jints rule..one note: Robbins/Cofield MUST collapse the pocket...if this is done, EASY NY WIN...if they blow their assignments, it will be a battle...but we SHOULD BE ABLE TO CONTROL THE LINES
Thursday, January 8, 2009
Eagles, Giants, and the NFL
1) Not a complete surprise that a ny giants blog would have ~80% of its respondents lining up to vote for them to win the Super Bowl. But how biased is this group? The online odds to win the Super Bowl paint a different picture, one where essentially the Steelers, Panthers and Giants are viewed almost equally. Considering how the Giants are the favorite, it should not be so unreasonable for the sample to be skewed. There is also a little bit of that battle for respect still working here- the variance between 7 of the 8 teams is very small. The Giants are only ~twice as likely to win the Super Bowl as the 7th best team. It's bunched up- at least that is what the money says, not what we say.
2) The Browns hired Mangini. What am I missing? Maybe I can coach for 30 mins a game too and get a job.
3) Everyone loves Gilbrown. This guy can't buy an interview, let alone a head coaching job. But others think he is such a great coordinator, why don't they buy a franchise and give him the keys. It isn't happening. I certainly hope he does a good job with the offense this Sunday, but it is very clear AROUND THE LEAGUE that the Giants are where they are because of Reese, Coughlin and Spagnuolo. They win despite Gilbride, not because of him. How many times do you hear defensive players praising Spags? All the time. How many times have you heard the offensive players (going out of their way) lauding Gilbride? Almost never. I'll tell you why- because they are in the huddle and they know first hand how Manning is busy changing out of the playcall- CORRECTLY- because Gilguy has them in the wrong set. I'll be more than happy to sing his praises if he calls a good game, and we certainly have this season on more than a few occasions. But let's not kid ourselves- the silence with this guy's consideration for a HC job is DEAFENING. How many draft choices do we need to give away to have someone take him off our hands?
4) What kind of owner is there to fire his head coach who had a winning record, clearly making a statement that he was committed to winning a championship, then disappears for the interviews with candidates the week after? That never happened with the Maras, because they are football people. Even though the GM was in charge of the hiring, they were on the front lines all the time. Could you imagine Well Mara being out of the country while his team just fired its coach? Away on business? Football WAS Mara's business. I cannot speak at all to whether Johnson's presence had anything to do with Cowher saying no, but how can you blame him? All he knew was the Rooneys, another football BUSINESS. It starts from the top. Brown rolls downhill.
5) I am tired of the analysis of this Eagles Giants game. Let's fast forward to Sunday already so we can play the game.
6) 20-25 MPH winds forecast from the Ultimatenyg Meteorologist. He was 15-25MPH on Tuesday, so this looks pretty firm.
7) Simms on Showtime: "Tennessee won't be favored if they face the Giants (in the Super Bowl). I believe the Giants will be the favorite no matter how they play in the playoffs and regardless of who they face in the Super Bowl." His pick in the game this weekend- The New York Football Giants. Phil also takes the Panthers and the Titans, but cannot select in the SD/PIT game because he is announcing for that one.
8) Jacobs as good and healthy as he has been since he hurt himself in W3. "You can hear him," Snee said. "He's very vocal and he's enthusiastic. He came in Monday in here and he was rip-roaring and yelling. I said to Brandon, 'We don't play until Sunday at one,' and he looked at me like I was crazy. He's fired up and I love it."
9) Time to cut the low hanging fruit from the sickly Cowboy tree- Pacman Jones is gone. Is there anyone on the team that was more representative of how we all (including myself) saw this massive assemblage of #1 draft pick talent, and how it did not come together? Jones killed the Giants when he was at TENN, but not here.
Wednesday, January 7, 2009
Good news for Giants fans: Robbins is ready
Yesterday, Fred Robbins spoke on his blog for the first time in 3 weeks. If you read #98's comments this season, he has been open about plenty of stuff... not the usual Eli Manning platitudes.
Why is Fred Robbins so important? If you have to ask that, (1) welcome to the blog world, where we explain stuff like that (2) you probably have not been following the gmen that closely.
Robbins is one of the keys to the game on Sunday. Since he is good on run defense, and since the Eagles can't run the ball well, we know and expect the Eagles to be passing a lot. It is imperative to get the push up the middle on McNabb so that he (a) cannot step into the pocket on his throws (b) cannot step up to avoid the pass rush AND (c) cannot buy time for his dumpoff/checkdown/flare to the RB/TE. "Critical," says Wonder. Agreed.
Now let's listen to what Robbins had to say:
We can’t make mistakes against a team like Philly. They’re hot and they’ve really been claiming the line of scrimmage, so it’s going to be a typical Giants-Philly game and could come down to who has the ball last.
A lot of people have been saying that we could be rusty after a couple weeks off, but I don’t think so. We got in a lot of good work this week and last week. We haven’t relaxed, or taken the foot off the gas pedal. It’s playoff time! There’s no tomorrow and no get ’em next week. Each play really counts, and if you lose you have to wait a whole year to play again.
We’ve worked too hard for this to be the end of our season. We’re still hungry.
I didn’t take the day off against Minnesota even though I’ve been banged up because it could have been tough to get back in the groove going into the playoffs after not playing for 3 or 4 weeks. I wanted to sharpen my technique.
My shoulder is feeling healthy, about 95 percent. I’m finally able to do the things I was able to do at the start of the season, and I’m ready to pick up where I left off before I hurt my hands and my shoulder.
When we played Philly last time I had missed the week before with the shoulder injury and I think I rushed back too soon. My shoulder was not healthy enough for me to have been out there playing. I didn’t want to miss that game, but I wasn’t able to perform up to my capabilities.
If this guy is healthy and playing to "where I left off before I hurt my hands and my shoulder," it is lights out, my friends. Robbins had 5.5 sacks in his first 6 games before he got hurt, and enabled Kiwi and Tuck to do what they do best. Watch Freddie on Sunday, because if he is getting the push, he doesn't even need the sacks (although of course they are the bonus). He just needs to push up the middle so that McNabb is disrupted with hurries/knockdowns/Tuck.
SEPARATELY: ASK WONDER. Do you have a question for Wonder on the Gmen or Eagles? On the matchups between CAR-AZ, SD-PIT, TEN-BAL? Who is the player to watch on a particular team? He'll field your questions (email or comment) with a post for Friday. Btw, nice job by Wonder early Sunday in alerting us to Minnesota's chances dropping big when Pat Williams was unable to play.
Tuesday, January 6, 2009
Bob Papa and Carl Banks
Bob Papa was quite frank in expressing the viewpoint that the Giants SHOULD WIN this weekend as long as they take care of their business. Papa is always understated, so even though he is a company guy, he is not sticking his neck out. He brings up the following points:
1)They needed this bye week. Offseason was compacted by SB win this past year. Bye week 3+ months ago. Mental rest important and helpful.
2) Giants let game get away from themselves in W14. "For some reason" the Giants reversed to Manningham.. "This (reverse) is not part of the Giants offense."(read: what the brown are you doing, Gilbrown?)
3) Hixon drop, squandered opportunities.
4) Do not put Pierce on Westbrook.
5) Tuck had the flu.
6) Jacobs banged his knee, once he got hurt it went downhill.
7) The more chances you give Westbrook and McNabb, the easier it becomes for the Eagles to win.
8) Vikings could not run the ball because the Eagles knew the Vikings had no passing game. Tarvaris Jackson was an amateur out there yesterday. Manning is no Jackson. Manning changes plays, has poise, knows the Eagles defense, has much more command of the offense.
9) Carton paraphrased: "If the Giants do what they do, they should beat this Eagles team." Papa:"I agree with you. If they run the ball the way they can run the football and the way ..they have with Ward and Jacobs.. they are going to be very tough to beat in this football game."
Carl Banks
Giants and their fans should be nervous about the Eagles. The things you do not do well get magnified to the highest level in the playoffs.
Giants are inconsistent at best in the red zone, it is a problem where the Giants have to be good. If the Giants have a bad game in the red zone, they will come back and be ok in the next game... these are the things which will come back to haunt you though because in the playoffs there is no next game and you have to do it consistently. Third down and manageables.... where are the difference-makers? Third and 5, a fielder's choice, they have to look at the plays they are calling... defenses do not know what you are going to call. This was the difference in the game W14. On 5 or 6 occasions they had these situations and flopped.
GILBROWN??!!!!!
Giants were 27% converting these. Giants had 5 third and manageables last game and did not convert. This is it. When you have these opportunities, the play calling has to be very good, the execution has to be very good. When you move the ball on 1st and 2nd down, you need to get the first down and complete the drive.
When you have the opportunities, get ahead of the Eagles. Make Westbrook strictly a passing back. They don't run it well anyway. Don't let Westbrook get into a rhythm.
Giants also at a disadvantage in punt returns.
This should be a close game. The Giants need to take care of their housekeeping. That is Kevin Gilbride, Tom Coughlin, Ahmad Bradshaw, the Offensive Line.
Avant is a sleeper, runs very good routes, effective in the red zone. Giants need to be wary of him.
Giants tidy it up. The Giants have enough time to clean it up. The way they got beat last time, they should have the pride to turn it around this time, and if they do that they will make it tougher for the Eagles.
Ultimatenyg New York Giants Blog comments: Banks' number one issue in this session was the RED ZONE OFFENSE. He could not have been more pointed in his criticism of Gilbrown while being employed as the radio color man for the Giants. HELLO KEVIN BOSS. With Boss on 3rd and manageable, he is the player who you get the ball to to move the chains. And in the red freaking zone? Boss leads the team in TD receptions with 6, and he should have many more because if they simply throw him the ball (tied for 25th in the league, are you kidding me?!!) with the PLAY ACTION it works every time. Banks mentions execution, meaning CATCH THE BALL when it is thrown. Boss catches the ball, great hands. The Giants are as inconsistent in the red zone as Gilbrown's inconsistency in using the TE.
Boss:
0-2 receptions in 8 games, Giants 5-3 record.
3+ receptions in 7 games, Giants 7-0.
When the Giants are in the red zone 6x vs the Steelers and win, it is Boss who finally gets the ball on the LAST of those 6 possessions (see video~ minute 6:13) . On play action. (I am not sure who loves what more, me with the TE, or Wonder with the play action. On that one we had both.) WAKE THE BROWN UP. GET CONSISTENT IN YOUR USE OF THE TE AND WIN THE SUPER BOWL.
Nature asks yesterday, hey why should we be so confident when Gilbrown keeps us at bay with his mistakes? It is a very good point, and I am optimistic that the last game which Boss played (Carolina, where Boss got 5 receptions) is the wakeup call where the offense got in rhythm. Wonder thinks the push by Robbins is more important than the use of the TE, but I think they are both equally important. At this point if we have either we will win the whole thing. If we have neither and Gilbrown is found dead from a letter bomb, send them to me, I will be the first suspect.
Monday, January 5, 2009
Bring'em On- NO EXCUSES
Now that we have reached the beginning of the playoffs, you can post your selection of who will win Super Bowl XLIII on the right column of the blog -->
LET'S GO- BRING ON THE EAGLES!
If the Gmen lose, they do not deserve to be Super Bowl Champions. Why? Because we saw the Eagles' hand already. Twice. And if you count the same lessons that Gilbrown had to learn yet again vs the Cowboys, three times. There should be few (if ANY) surprises. You have to know about 90%-95% of what they are going to try to do to stop you.
The Giants will play better.. A LOT BETTER than W14. And if they get torched by Westbrook on that checkdown/screen by a LBer getting beat instead of a Safety, then we deserve our fate. As long as the Giants have learned ANYTHING from that W14 matchup, the Gmen will be fine and will win this game. The Eagles have no real running game. I'd be in nickel all day, and dime on 3rd down. The Vikings w/o Pat Williams had no push up the middle, so McNabb had all day. Pls Fred Robbins and Barry Cofield, get that push and we will be fine. Kiwi and Tuck, contain that pocket.
The offense has new rhythm now that it did not have 4 weeks ago, and if Gilbrown is moronic enough to not realize that (a) the Eagle undersized defensive line needs a steady diet of Jacobs and (b) the looks they will give us mean BOSS to move the sticks/red zone, then we deserve our fate. Since major adjustments are not anticipated, the Giants should be able to outphysical this team and win.
Look back to W14's loss. Remember that the Eagles had the 10 days of rest and were jacked. Now we have the rest and we are the team that will be jacked. Remember the missed blocks? The dropped balls? The Giants were flat that day and they will be much more focused this time.
The people who make the comparisons to the Giants '07 and Steelers '05 for what the Eagles '08 allegedly look like are missing a key DIFFERENCE. The Gmen were 8-1 at this point as ROAD WARRIORS. The Steelers were 7-2 at this point as ROAD WARRIORS. The Eagles? They are 4-4-1, having beaten SF, SEA, NYG (*which we have discussed above and know all about), and MINN. Road warriors they ain't. They will be 4-5-1 and sent for early January golf after this coming Sunday.
No excuses. Unmask this team right here, right now. They caught us snoozing in W14, but this time it counts, 100% focus, 100% win.
The Giants are -4. The Giants will win and cover.
Sunday, January 4, 2009
WEEK 2 OF PLAYOFFS
As advertised, no Pat Williams= no pressure up the middle= comfortable McNabb passing for 300yds and victory..but the JINTS will NOT allow him such luxury...stop the run+ collapse the pocket+ contain Westbrook = VICTORY....again, I see all the top seeds prevailing...Carolina has easiest game...Balt will play Tenn tough...SD will have trouble against Pitt Def. in the cold...
Simms Sunday Morning QB
Phil Simms WFAN/Showtime commentary can be found on Ultimatenyg New York Giants Blog.
1) SD wins over IND. Norv Turner coached, managed, called the plays as well as I have ever seen him. Colts cannot run the football. Chargers defense was more aggressive. People simply not worried about the Colts running game anymore. SD defense bailed the team out. SD was refusing to win. Rivers was not comfortable, uneasy. Guys were wide open downfield, but the Chargers offensive line could not pass protect well, Rivers had no confidence that he could hang in there long enough to go downfield. On the 3rd and 2, Colts go empty backfield(!), Chargers were man to man with one extra guy short zone for the slants, would have picked off Peyton Manning. Result of a sack was caused by the extra defender on the 1st choice slant... would have been an INT if Manning threw it.
2) Jets players re Favre. The amount of attention Favre receives anywhere is extraordinary. So players on his team felt left out and unloved. Not surprised.
3) BAL-MIA today. Simms doing game. Keys.. Balt on defense is smart, hard to read, tough matchup for Dolphins. Miami tries to widen field for Williams and Brown. Simms admits to be wrong about the Ravens, they are a very good team. Cam Cameron doing well for the Ravens under Harbaugh. Matt Ryan hit the wall, Flacco is bigger and stronger and has not hit the wall. Flacco like Eli, unemotional and calm. Dolphins will try to pressure Flacco to force him
4) AZ-ATL. Weakness of ATL run defense was exposed because generally speaking, when ATL is ahead it takes away the opponent's ability to patiently run the ball on that team. AZ won because they (despite being a bad running team) were able to run the ball later in the game.
5) MIN-PHL. Jackson has settled in. Both teams with West Coast Offense are similar. But MIN has a chance to do things that the Eagles cannot. People forget that just two weeks ago the Eagles scored only 3 points vs the Skins. Phil likes the Vikings.
Saturday, January 3, 2009
LET THE GAMES BEGIN !!
Well, guys..it's that time of year..when we all hope our team is "in the hunt"...but, even the most die-hard fans know, deep down, that only a few teams really have a decent chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy...except for our Jints last year, when did a "true" underdog win the SB ? I'll tell you...the Pats against the "invincible" Rams...but as history proved, the Pats were no fluke and the Rams were short-lived..The experts may minimize the #1, #2 seeds, but the extra week to heal cannot be underestimated... and to have the FIRST game at home is huge...not just b/c of your fans, but b/c the team is COMFORTABLE and has a better chance to handle the emotions and adrenalin of its first playoff game..this year, more than in recent times, I do believe that the 4 top seeds stand an excellent chance of emerging...with all that, I shall give you my prognosis:
1. NO CHANCE: Ariz, Mia, ATl, Minn....I actually believe AZ has a good chance to "surprise" and beat ATL, which is decent team but game is NOT in a dome, and they're "inexperienced"...Cards are the ultimate HOME team...after which they'll get killed...Mia is the worst 11-5 team I've seen in a long time...they MAY keep it close against Balt, but I doubt it...Vikes stand a chance against Phil (I like +3) IF they can RUN and NOT TURN ball over...but they have little hope to prevail in the SB....
2. A LITTLE CHANCE: Phil, SD, Balt...it's just not that easy to win 3 games to get to SB, much less with at least 2 on the road..that's what makes the Jints and Steelers SB victories recently so special..granted they were good teams that peaked at the right time, but it's just HARD TO DO...and while a lot of the so-called experts are jumping on the Eagles' wagon, need I remind them that only a short while ago McNabb was BENCHED and the team was 5-5-1...and they CAN'T run the ball or stop the run consistently...SD is interesting and IF LT, GATES can play at 90% today, I give them a reasonable chance to upset the COLTS....but that "IF" re: health is a BIG concern and a bad secondary against Peyton will make it tough..and then have to beat Pitt and Tenn on road? not likely...Balt is pretty interesting b/c I think they have the EASIEST opening game and that DEF is in rhythm...no matter what, if you want to beat Balt, you better bring your hard hats and "A" game on BOTH sides of the line...
3. A "DECENT CHANCE": IND, TN....this was a hard category for me...I realize IND is playing well (9 straight)..BUT who have they really beaten except a close, lucky, game at home vs. the PATS ? granted, SD and Pitt as well (VERY lucky in ALL 3 games)...but they have not been TESTED in their last 5 "gimme" games...I know how good Peyton is..BUT if you take a good look at IND off., it's NOT what it was..they really don't have the "big play" dynamic they used to have..in addition, their inability to run or stop the run will be their downfall in bad weather...as for TN, if Mia is the worst #3 of recent times, TN is the worst #1...whatever "it" is, they don't have "IT"...yeah, I know...they beat Pitt when they needed to...it won't happen again..the best thing they have going for them is Chris Johnson and a solid def...but they are a little banged up (haynesworth, vanden Bosch) and I do not believe they are "ready" for that next step...that being said, a team has to BEAT TN... b/c they usually don't beat themselves...
4. A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE: CAR, PITT...If one defines this category as WINNING the SB, I think both these teams have the attributes...first, Car has a solid, all-around team...their one flaw is INCONSISTENCY on offense, which may be directly attributed to their QB Jake...stop their running game, and pressure DelH while "doubling" steve smith, and he's just not good enough to beat you...also, while I respect their D, I don't FEAR their D, and that's a big difference...as for PITT, if they had the Jets' O-line, much less Car, Den, or the Jints, Pitt would be scary..BUT, they don't...and that leads to an inability to run the ball and crippling bigben...their D is awesome AND scary...soooo, DON'T turn the ball over (more than once in a game) and you will beat them
5. A REAL GOOD CHANCE: JINTS....I don't want to hear about losing 3 of 4...this is the DEFENDING SB CHAMPS..they have experience and confidence as well as talent on their side.. simply put, they can RUN and STOP the RUN better than any other team..in the cold, that gets you TO the SB...as for the actual SB, you also have to be able to pass due to better weather... I believe Eli has come a LONG way to where he is UNDERESTIMATED by his opp AND the so-called experts..he is a SILENT ASSASSIN...effecient, consistent, and cool under pressure... the only problem I see for our Jints is the HEALTH of Jacobs and the DL...Jacobs MUST be his normal smashmouth self and the DL MUST get back to RUSHING THE QB!!....I also feel having both NFC games at home is HUGE...and I do NOT fear the baby Eagle(t)s !!...I think the Jints' toughest task will actually be the SB itself... GO JINTS !! more next week, WONDER
misc
O'Hara: This team knows how to step it up when it is time to do so. Get something out of the rest, practice in pads next week to get faster to be ready for the game. Key to spags is that he is not afraid to blitz, and his players love that because it means that he trusts them, and they want to reward that trust.
Fassel: Definitely interested in HC job. Ravens will win, bad matchup for dolphins. Nothing good to say about tarvaris jackson. Peyton manning very special, sd could have played ind in conf championship if brackets broke differently, that is how good these 2 teams can be.
simms: AZ, SD, MINN
Giants had 13 turnovers, a record low for 16 games. 1 was from Jacobs (the hurdle at PHL) and 12 were from Manning (10 INTs and 2 lost fumbles). Amazing stat. If the Giants can somehow keep protecting the ball the way they have, it may be exactly what is necessary to put them over the top.
Latest Spags is Denver, Lions, Browns and Jets. No one will know anything significant until some/other teams start dropping out of the picture by announcing they are hiring someone else. Word is that Spags is #1 on the Jets list. And word is also that Shanahan is not preferred either. Shanahan has gone on vacation for 2 weeks to get some perspective before he sets out to determine what he wants to do. Richard Neer (WFAN) makes a good point.. why is WOODY JOHNSON out of the country? We should be reminded that the Maras and Tisches were certainly involved in the Giant's coaching selection, interviewing candidates etc.
BEWARE OF CONSENSUS. The consensus geniuses like the Colts, Ravens and Eagles. If all of them (and the world) were right, Las Vegas would be dead. To quote a local who lives off the Strip, "this town wasn't built on winners." Take the Chargers, Dolphins and Vikings. You will be correct on a minimum of two out of three. Why? Because betting is not this easy. And the easy thing to do is take the Colts, Ravens and Eagles. Nothing in life is free. You can argue that there is a point spread too, but in one of the games there isn't and the other two they would take them anyway, FG or no FG. Bottomline is there is such strong consensus that it should wake us up to the fact that the other team is 'live.'
Friday, January 2, 2009
The Disappearance of Home Field Advantage
Some very interesting stats:
Last 25 years (1983-2008) Homefield team outscores Visitor by +3.1 ppg
Last 10 years: +2.8 ppg
Last 5 years: +2.5 ppg
Last 3 years: +2.1 ppg
So homefield advantage is eroding. Simmons at ESPN has an interesting theory on why, and I STRONGLY urge you to read what he had to say.
I bring these things up naturally because of what the Steelers did in the 2005-6 playoffs and what the Giants did in in the 2007-8 playoffs. Homefield is not what it is cracked up to be. There are many games at Giants Stadium that are worthy of a funeral march as opposed to the energy of the 12th man. Still, to be fair, the Giants are a pretty good homefield in the playoffs, having been there for Washington Jan1987, Eagles Jan2001, Vikings Jan2001. Yes, I am 3-0 in Giants playoffs games and have been there for both NFC Championship victories in the Super Bowl era. I will not be at the stadium this playoff run because I am one of those hdtv guys who does not miss the stadium anymore. I ask myself whether the new Stadium being built will make the 'advantage' grow even narrower. Between all the PSL stories and the Simmons article above (what, you didn't read it? READ it!) I think it is obvious that the new stadium will lose some of its energy.
The sage of the locker room, elder statesman Amani Toomer was succinct and perfect in stating the advantages and disadvantages of homefield in the playoffs: "(Home-field advantage) just gives you an opportunity. It didn't help the Cowboys much last year. That's how I look at it. They're not going to give us an extra seven points when we start the game." To reach the Super Bowl again, the Giants — spared the road and the wild-card round — need to win only two games at home. So how does it feel for them to be the bull’s-eye in the target instead of the arrow in the bow? Is it different? “Not very much,” the veteran wide receiver, said. “I don’t think we get much respect from a lot of teams that we play. A lot of experts really don’t pick us to win it all. There’s definitely that feeling in this locker room.”
Barring Eli Manning learning how to throw a tight spiral in the wind, the Giants do not have a distinct homefield edge. The only edge they have is a week off, turning the tournament of 12 to a tournament of 8. And the time to heal some inuries. Once was a time when being the #1 meant a lot more. The Giants have the maturity and discipline to leverage that and not waste the opportunity. If Toomer plays half as well as his words, the Giants are in pretty good shape.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
Rest for the Weary Interior Defensive Lineman
The Ultimatenyg Wife and Daughter made cookies for the New Years Party last night. When we lost Osi in August, we knew that was a BIG hurdle to getting another title. Well, here we are. All it means is that the Giants need HELP. They need the offense to get more points. They need the kickoff coverage to help them with field position. Yes, they need the Safety to pickup the RB out of the checkdown, not Pierce. (Wonder agrees, says Pierce should not be on the field on 3rd and long.) They can commit a few less penalties. The Giants have enough to win it all, they just need to be a little tighter from here on in. Gilbride needs to get more than 21 points per game this offseason, it will NOT be enough unless guys like Robbins ARE BACK.
Like we have said before, IF ROBBINS IS BACK IN EARLY SEASON HEALTH, they'll be on Broadway on Feb 2nd. But when did an interior DL ever finish STRONGER as the season wore on? I am willing to bet that that extra week off for Cofield may have saved him in ways we do not know. Interior DL is like playing Catcher in Baseball. The length of the season is a major grind. The physical demands every game wear you down like no other position on the field. It is not a coicidence that these guys get hurt and eventually cannot play well enough with their injuries and must take a week off to heal.
We looked at the 4 Pro Bowl picks this season (Haynesworth, Jenkins, Ratliff and Williams), added in Cofield and Robbins, and looked at their combined tackles and sacks in the first 11 games and then looked at the same stats in the last 5 games of the season.
Statistic First11 Last5
Starts 100% 84%
Tackles/game 3.1 2.8
Sacks/game 0.52 0.08
So the number of tackles this squad made dropped off by 11% per game. Given that the number of starts also dropped by 16%, you can argue that the run-stopping stayed consistent. But the total number of sacks plummetted from 34 in the first 11 games to 2.5 in the last 5 games, a drop of 84%. These guys simply lose their wheels. ALL OF THEM. I did not inspect the assists/solo tackles ratio, but anecdotally it looked like there were less solos and more assists in the latter part of the season.
EIGHT FOUR PERCENT. THE SACKS DRIED UP. COMPLETELY! For Robbins, his last sack came on October 19th. For Defensive Ends, they may come in "bunches," but for Defensive Linemen, they come in the earlier part of the season. You can argue, but hey, he got injured! But injuries alone only would account for a 16% dropoff in production, which is almost exactly what we see from the number of tackles. And this dropoff in sacks was for all the probowlers, not just (the alternate Pro Bowler) Robbins.
One factor which cannot be ignored is that Robbins collected 5.5 sacks in his first 6 games vs. weaker competition with a winning percentage of 30.7%. In the last 10 games, the Giants and Robbins faced opponents with a winning percentage of 61.8%. So some of the dropoff in his personal performance may have been related to that variable.
The Giants pass rush misses the push from Robbins up the middle. All teams miss this, but it has been especially acute for the Giants. Even if Robbins does not get the sack, if he getting the forward push this will help Kiwanuka and Tuck because the QB will not be able to step up into the pocket. At this point in the season, all we need is the hurry, knockdown, push. Sacks just confirm the other three and generally cause change of possession.
Separately, if you have a site which tracks INDIVIDUAL HURRIES and KNOCKDOWNS for defensive players, pls let us know.
