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Tuesday, November 25, 2008

An interesting perspective

The last three teams that have repeated as Super Bowl champions the next season.

The 1988 49ers 9-2 after 11 games.

The 1998 Broncos 11-0 after 11 games.

The 2004 Patriots 10-1 after 11 games.

If this is any indication, the Giants are on track, right where they should be.

Re the Super Bowl, Giants are 1.6/1 favorites according to one site with updated odds. Those prices are "asking," not midpoint. So you have to figure that the Giants are about a 30% chance for winning the Super Bowl. And that implies they are a ~46% shot for making the Super Bowl. Figure the Jets to be an underdog against the Giants in the Super Bowl if they make it, implying a ~22% chance to be in the game. That means a 10% chance at a NY Super Bowl, a ~42% chance neither are there, and a 48% chance one of them is there. Still way too many games to be played... just trying to be a little more analytical and quantitative, using the betting money's objectivity.

addendum: the site with the odds updated after post... new odds reflected above.

10 comments:

dberenson said...

I am highly superstitious, so I don't like any talk of Super Bowls.

One game at a time, thank you.

Motown Blue said...

Likewise DB, just enjoy each game as much as you can. I am enjoying the fact that they are clearly the #1 team in the NFL.

Any given Sunday a team can lose to an inferior team due to luck of a bounce, tipped pass deflection, lousy referees, and the dread i word (injuries). 1 game at a time.

Andy F. said...

lunchtime special: I am just as superstitious as all of you. this whole thing can end as soon as it began. But (a) you have to enjoy it while it is there (b) you have to recognize that the Giants are getting respect from the money (c) statistically there is a 0.4% chance of a NY Super Bowl any given year, and this year it is right now looking like 10% (d) many newspapers/headlines would have you thinking the chances of a NY SBowl are like a coin flip, which is not true.

Mitch said...

I too have been very uncomfortable with all this SB talk. So, I for one will stop...but for all you Giant fans out there....this will sober you up. Today is the anniversary of one of the lowest points in Giant history as well as Eli hitting rock bottom.

One year ago today, the Giants were a ship without a rudder. They played the Vikings at home losing, 41-17, while Eli Manning threw four interceptions, three of the picks off Manning were returned for touchdowns.

I swear I was almost ready to rent a plane to fly over Giants Stadium with the banner that read:

BUST - BUST -BUST!

Oh, how things have changed since then. 17-3 with a Super Bowl win to boot.

So I think this Thanksgiving we all have alot to be thankful for. Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and your families. Go Big Blue!

Jonah said...

94 Cowboys were also 9-2

Jonah said...

Not that I want to draw attention to the cowgirls.

Bob said...

ONE GAME AT A TIME !!

What really scares me is that we won the SB last year when NO ONE
gave us a chance at this time last year.

Now all the talking heads have the G-men in the SB already.

Beware of unexpected surprises.

Mike said...

I'm not scared of this talk. The Giants are the most well-rounded team I've seen in this league in a long time.

Pastime Princess said...

I agree with Mike 100% Talent and teamwork trump superstition every time.

xtian said...

the 1990 49ers were looking to 3-peat. they started off 10-0 [so did the gmen] and beat the gmen 7-3 on monday night ftball, but lost the nfc championship game 15-13 to them.

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