Phil Simms this morning

1) Colts could be 4-0 or 0-4. At 2-2 they are very fortunate. Peyton Manning healthy, these first 4 weeks were like training camp for him. He needs to be more mobile this year, moving more because he has two rookies on the OL that force him to move sooner than he would like.
2) Ravens face the Colts in the game that Simms covers. Big OL. Offense is too tepid, needs to take a few more chances to open up, relies too much on the strong defense. Simms says a FG will decide the game.
3) Gonzalez trade? The Giants' offense is focused more on the WR, the TE is more of an outlet only. Would be surprised if the Giants gave up enough to make the deal happen. He did qualify it earlier by saying 'why not' do it if the compensation is not too great.
4) Single Wing is a fad. It mixes up your offense to break tendency, but this will not be a new trend and will remain limited.
5) Rivers changed his throwing motion, reverted back to rookie mechanics, his pass lost accuracy and strength after the first two weeks. SD is beat up.
6) Redskins are playing with spirit, energy and toughness. Athletic, they play fast. Saw it in Dallas and saw it once again in Philadelphia. Faster and tougher than the Eagles. 'Amazing' what Zorn has done.

TE Tony Gonzalez to the Giants?

Chiefs and Giants have been talking about trading a draft pick for Tony Gonzalez. Either way, we'll know by Tuesday.

I'd do it for a 4th rounder because he gives us the depth and insurance that we do not have at the position. Remember, our 4th rounder is like a 5th rounder from all others because our record at this point is likely to send the draft slot to near bottom.

Devil's advocate: The best reason not to overpay here is that Gilbride is a serial underutilizer of the TE position. If Boss gets hurt, just use more of Hixon/Smith/Bradshaw as receiving options.

Gonzalez is quality, he has 21 receptions this season, he is under contract, he still has 2+ seasons left in the tank. A late 4th rounder sounds reasonable to me, good insurance for Boss. All things being equal I would rather allocate resources at Left Tackle or Linebacker, but it is what it is. Reese's offer of a 6th rounder means he is probably only thinking 5th rounder, which the Chiefs would be smart not to take.

George Young speaks

This week, Plaxico Burress came back. (Pat Hanlon, quoting the late) George Young: "We are not in the business of well-adjusted human beings."

Here are some more quotes from the former GM of the Giants...

On Bill Parcells: "Bill knows what defense he'll call during the second series three games from now. He doesn't know what he's doing in his own life three days from now."

On Parcells' unscheduled departure in May 1991: "I wasn't happy Bill left, not at all."

On hiring Ray Handley: "My worst decision."

On his new job in 1979 at the Meadowlands: "It's a funny place. Everybody's named either Vinny or Whitey."

Young on player agents: "The three characteristics that I hate most in a person are arrogance, mendacity and greed. And these guys have all three."

Another word used by Young to describe agents- "Cockroaches."

On the feud between Tim and Wellington Mara: "I'm just Irish enough to know that you don't take one side or another, or they'll both turn on you."

On his head coaching personnel decisions: "Always hire somebody you know. That way you have a good idea of what the person's like. No surprises."

And some more of his insight on hiring: "You hire somebody with a high energy level. And something to prove."

On picking Phil Simms with his first pick as the new Giants GM: "You've got to assert yourself. You just can't be reacting to what people think you should do. You don't often wind up with a great arm and the intelligence to go with it. It's the kind of opportunity that might not occur for another two years. When you get it, you've got to take it."

On picking LT with the #2 pick in the 1981 draft: "I thought they would take George Rogers, the Heisman Trophy running back, but I didn't stop sweating until they did."

On picking his heir apparent, Ernie Accorsi: "He knows who to talk to, and he knows who not to listen to."

On passing up driving a Mercedes Benz that was offered to him: "(Legendary Steelers owner) Mr. Rooney drove a Buick all his life. That's good enough for me."

On players- "It's about the money. And when they say it's not about the money, then it is definitely about the money."

On Karl Nelson considering a choice of careers after playing football: "too well-adjusted to coach."

"There's one big difference between college and pro football. In college you have your name on the jersey for four years and you graduate. In the pros, the name on the jersey may be the same for nine or 10 years but the athlete isn't the same guy."

As for his place in sports, he knew he would be remembered as: "..the other George in New York."

On going down to Washington DC to visit the White House after winning Super Bowl XXI: "It's nice to be here surrounded by the Secret Service instead of by the Redskins."

One more thing on George Young... for those of you who have read "Good to Great" by Jim Collins, you will know that the great companies (/franchises) have succession plans that are built to last and not built to fail. Young hired both Ernie Accorsi and Jerry Reese. This third title has some of Young's hand in it. Considering he drafted Strahan and Toomer, perhaps more.

Revealing remarks about Jacobs and Bradshaw

There is nothing like the words of an opponent. When you hear them say something on the margin, you pay attention:

You can be sure heading into Monday night's game in Cleveland that Brandon Jacobs and the Giants offensive line will take notice on comments made by Browns defensive end Corey Williams. This from Paul Schwartz:

Williams said toughness had nothing to do with Jacobs' big-play ability. "It's a zone-blocking scheme that lets him run and pick a hole," he said. "There ain't nothing physical about them."

Williams, acquired from the Packers for a second-round draft pick, said Jacobs tired in last year's NFC Championship.

"We were hitting [Jacobs], and he was slowing down," Williams said. "He left the game. They let the Bradshaw kid come in. He's really the one who killed us."

The NY Giants Ultimatenyg football blog has been the unofficial home of Ahmad Bradshaw, wondering aloud why he does not get into the starting lineup for some time. We also acknowledge that Bradshaw has been the positive recipient of Jacobs 'softening up' the defense for his delayed entry. But we still have to keep hammering at the evidence. Everyone sees the explosive ability in Bradshaw except the Giants coaching staff.

Perhaps it is part of a genius master plan to play Jacobs and Ward until they get hurt, and then have the 'little' guy take us to the house in playoffs crunch time when everyone else is worn down and/or injured. I respect that a great deal. What I do NOT respect is Bradshaw returning kickoffs- if and when he gets hurt, that madness will make me blow a gasket. We have been stating it clearly that we expect Jacobs to slow down later this season because the punishment he dishes out also takes its toll on his own body... especially considering he is much taller than normal for a RB and thus has to run a little too tall. The only RB I have seen who could consistently run 'tall,' not get hurt, and last a (hall of fame) career was Eric Dickerson. At least Jacobs lowers his shoulder when impact is coming.

Sidenote to Corey Williams- You may be big enough to not be intimidated by Jacobs, but none of the back 7 look forward to that kind of punishment.

NY Giants Math

Want to know what expected value is? It is the probability times the value of the outcome. So if we want to figure out what the record of the Giants is going to look like this season, we can (a) estimate the point spread in each game (b) convert that to a percent probability from the corresponding moneyline odds (c) add up the individual games ... for the final record of the Giants this season.

0 pt favorite = 50%
-3 = 60%
-4 = 66%
-7 = 75%
-10 = 81%
-14 = 88%

at CLE, -7, so 75% moneyline odds
SF -13 = 87%
at Pitt = -3 = 60%
Dallas -4 = 66%
at PHL pick'em = 50%
BAL -7 = 75%
at AZ -6 = 72%
at WSH pickem 50%
PHL -6 = 72%
at DAL +2 = 43%
CAR -7 = 75%
at MINN -6 = 70%

You can dispute these lines, but they are generous guesses based on a growing sentiment that the Giants are regarded as the #1 team in the league RIGHT NOW.

The manager at a prominent Las Vegas Strip Hotel Sportsbook: "I think your numbers (lines) are too strong on the Giants. Though they crushed Seattle, lines generally don't move much game to game without key injuries. The biggest mistake bettors make is placing too much emphasis on the last game. Before last week the Giants would not be favored on the road as big as you have them in most cases, hence 11-5 or 12-4. I feel 13-3 will be enough to get home field this year and yes, the Giants are capable if they remain healthy. 14-2 is not realistic."

Even if there is one line or a few which are slightly off, it will not impact the net result significantly. Adding up the individual numbers yields 7.95, rounding to 8. The gmen are 4-0 currently, so the implied final record would be 12-4. That is a probabilistic best guess. You can easily make up your own math, saying there is no way the Giants are losing a particular game, so it is not 75%, it is 100%. But just remember the Bengals game for why there is no such thing as a lock on anything. "That's why they play the games." Does anyone here think 12-4 wins the division? I think it probably does not. This is a statistical guide to what things look like at this exact moment. For example, AFTER the games were tabulated, news came out that Newman has a sports hernia and may very well be out for 6 weeks, thus missing the first game coming up. By that point the Dallas defense can be vulnerable to the air attack and bump the odds a few points.

Summary: 12-4 looks like a realistic statistical mean based on expected value and 'slightly' aggressive from the sportsbook's perspective.

What does a 38 point victory mean?

Is the margin of victory by the Giants significant in and of itself?

Thomas George's more national perspective on the Giants' win.

We looked back at the two Giants championships in '86 and '90 to see if there were any parallels to what is going on here. The answer is pretty much no. In week 6 of '86 the Giants beat the Eagles 35-3, but beyond that, the point is that throttling the Rams and Seahawks does not mean dominance or a championship. Just remember back to the Patriots last year, how they kicked a** for umpteen weeks in a row until the Eagles and Ravens began to unravel the code begun by the Browns in how to beat them. The Giants had two cracks at them and made the last one count.

We have seen how you can dominate one team one week and the next week those 38 points mean zero to your score. When the Bengals were a play away from beating us in regulation, that Rams blowout didn't mean a thing.

Here is the good news- The Giants are getting experience at blowing out AND having to return to earth next week to play another opponent. In this regard, it is helpful. The professionalism, experience and confidence of this team is something special. They can make it happen because they have totally bought into Coughlin's need to have this team improve every week. This point has been made before, no need to belabor it.

So now the Giants take to the road. Good. Nothing like 'road cooking' for this team to get back to its roots of success, the focus and discipline of playing 60 minutes of road football. That is where it began. This team's self-respect and respect for the opposition implies as few letdowns as possible. Considering that the team is only 1 game ahead of two divisional rivals, one would think that they have no luxury for trying to mail it in ANYWHERE.

That seismic shift you felt on Sunday..

.. in the NFC East was the Redskins beating the Eagles on the road. Stunning. Although it can be easily explained: Westbrook is the X-factor for that team. He's healthy, the team wins. He goes down and the team loses. It explains a great deal of their inconsistency as a team. What is so hard to track is that he often plays hurt or (like yesterday) starts and then gets hurt. Over the past 5 years, when healthy, Brian Westbrook has been one of the 5 most valuable players on offense in the league.

FALLOUT: with the Redskins (a) having played all 3 road games (b) 4-1 (c) having a weak schedule ahead, getting in the playoffs looks very manageable for them. Winning the entire division is within reach too unless they lose to the Giants at home later this year (and the Giants continue their winning ways). This is a game of musical chairs where there will be three there and 4 teams. The Eagles at 2-3 are not done by any stretch. The last 4 opponents they have played have a combined 15-5 record, so the fact that they blew 3 of these games does not mean they are finished in any way. It just means that they have an enormous amount of pressure in their remaining divisional games to go at least 2-2, if not 3-1. If they go 1-3, imagining them catching up to the other 3 teams is hard. It would mean they would need to blank the rest of their schedule and go 10-6. We said this earlier this season, it will take 10 wins to get into the playoffs from the NFC.

Stretch the field

Two weeks ago vs the Bengals:
a lot of 8-9 men in the box
plenty of run calls for Jacobs
<10 yard passes mixed in

Yesterday vs the Seahawks:
7-8 men in the box
plenty of run calls for Jacobs
all kinds of passing plays mixed in

Not only was the offense more suited to the defenses being utilized, but most importantly the GIANTS STRETCHED THE FIELD. It was not as if the Bengals had Deion Sanders and Darrell Green back there. The Giants have the proven ability to throw the ball >20 yards to stretch the defense. Opposing defenses have to know you can and will test their manpower down the field, softening up the shorter routes and the running game as well. Not rocket science. You know all of this. Some others sometimes take a few extra quarters to remember.

Phil Simms argues this point all the time, sounds like another 'Rule' is coming.

New York Giants 44 Seattle Seahawks 6

'NATURE' WAS AT THE GAME

This was a clinic against a team that is not that bad. The Giants simply dissected them and took them apart piece by piece. Fantastic. Bravo. Great HOME performance for the fans, who have not seen a QUALITY win like that in a while. Great post-bye performance. So many great contributions from almost everyone on the squad (those that did not simply were not on the field or dressed).

1) Eli Manning was excellent. He was like a kid playing a video game, doing as he pleased with complete control and confidence, which stemmed from...

2) the Offensive Line, which was incredible. Pass, run, it did not matter. McKenzie out with concussion, no problem. It was so bad that the play action had Manning sitting back with all day to go anywhere he wanted. The pulling guards and blocking on the move were textbook execution.

3) HIXON! I am shocked! Not! We have been saying here on the blog that Hixon is ready for prime time ever since he broke out with some Toomer toe sensational receptions versus Cleveland in preseason.

4) Moss! This praise for one player after another is going to get tiresome. Limited snaps obviously went way up this game and he made the most of them, with 2 TDs and a lot of fine play. (Why bother mentioning how well Toomer and Smith played when that is like old news bread and butter?! Okay, okay, Smith had a fantastic sideline grab of a high Manning pass.)

5) Jacobs/Ward/Bradshaw. Plug and play. Scary.

6) Defensive line. They shut down the run, they put the pressure on, Spags had Tuck coming from the inside to mix things up. Kiwi even beat Jones in garbage time. (In the last 5-10 minutes why weren't the starters ALL benched already?!!! There is 7 mins left and I am looking at Diehl, Snee, Seubert and O'Hara, get them out of there. Granted it was nice to throw Carr a little bone, but NEXT.)

7) Webster/Ross. One looked better than the other. (Webster got called for a holding penalty early which was a figment of the zebra's imagination. Not only was it NOT a penalty, it was excellent coverage to boot.)

I could mention a half dozen other positives, but completely unnecessary. This was a surgical demolition of a team that was 1-2 and in need of a win. Gilbride was great in attacking from the start, stretching the field.

This 15 yard penalty rule on the face mask is pissing me off. If you look at the face mask they call you for 15. It is getting out of hand. Guys hands incidentally slap the helmet as their hands and arms get moved by the OTHER TEAM, and the flag goes out. This rule has to change.

Oh my goodness, the road warriors go back on the road. Hixon will be out with a concussion and we'll have Burress back. WR Hydra. NEXT.

Jeff Fisher, Phil Simms on WFAN

Jeff Fisher: hands full with Baltimore today. Rookie RB Chris Johnson doing it everywhere (run, catch, protect). Rotating him and LenDale White, don't wear them out. Collins having fun, enjoying everything. Can't buy his experience. OL is protecting Collins, a (huge) key. Baltimore is not asking a great deal of Flacco. Flacco is going to be a fine QB. The Tenn OL will have a good test today.

Phil Simms:

1) The fallout from Dallas loss is magnified in this town. Washington extremely clever. Some of the defenses the skins did caught them off guard. Dallas defense is LOADED, production is not there from LB etc.. so that has Simms wondering. Zorn has polished up Campbell really well. Overall team speed of Washington was impressive. They (specifically the Washington secondary) outran the Cowboys.

2) Colts run defense is awful (and that is being charitable to them!), without a healthy Sanders, adios.

3) Giants at this juncture are #1 in league. Giants can beat you in a lot of ways. Feedback from the Bengals on Giants was impressive.

4) NFC East has it all. All of them can do it. All teams are physical, QB play is good up and down the division, and they all hit the QB on defense.

5) Likes Titans over the Ravens. Nonetheless, impressed with Ravens.

6) Yes Favre looked a lot more comfortable, but the Cardinals pass defense was terrible.

7) SD: Jamal Williams, Rivers, Gates, LT.. core of team did not practice in preseason, need time to be at full strength. Given the time to get to full strength, SD can be a top team. Tremendous physical talent. Without Merriman, SD lacks a 'closer' on defense. With Merriman, believes they would be 4-0 instead of 2-2.

8) Cardinals vs a 4-0 team at home, important game. Bills allow you to play with them, don;t knock you out, that is why AZ has a decent shot. Suspect on the Bills, not buying them as a 4-0 team.

9) Jags vs Steelers- both teams are undermanned vs where they were in the playoffs. Rashean Mathis is the best CB in the league, and he is out. Steelers will win. Steelers need to keep Roethlisberger healthy, Simms wants Roethlisberger to stop trying to make a play every single play or else he will not survive the season.

10) Rookie Sedrick Ellis of the Saints looks VERY good, but hurt. Minnesota can overpower you, strong line play. Saints can beat the Vikings by spreading it out (note to Giants fans when we play the Vikings later this season... Spread it out vs this team and make them man you).

11) Winning is about big plays. You have to push defenses by passing downfield, stretch defenses. (Are you paying attention, Gilbride?)

Wonder at Week 5

Wonder comments on the NFL. NY Giants comments sprinkled in.

1) a fan of Jason Garrett, and yet thinks he got outcoached this past weekend vs the Skins. Dallas needed to go to counters, draws and reverses to battle the overpursuit of Washington, and they simply did not make the adjustments. 9 running plays? with that offensive line? they were outcoached.

2) the Dallas defense ("like I said after the W2 eagles mon night game") is over-rated. You give up 37 points to the eagles and then you let Washington control the ball like that? bad. It is not about the players. Schemes are not good.

3) Add (1) and (2) --> Wade Phillips is the weakest link (something Ultimatenyg has been arguing for a while).

4) Colts have a gigantic amount of injuries

5) Justin Tuck was terrific in laying the blame squarely on Burress and saying it was deserved. Vocal about responsibility. On the money.

6) Eli Manning will get better. If he can be more accurate in putting the ball at the right angle and right stride (read: be like Joe and Tom) he'll go to the sky.
Get the ball to Ahmad Bradshaw out of the backfield in stride and the right angle. Get the ball to Steve Smith in stride and at the right angle and watch his yardage go up too.

7) Pittsburgh's problem? No Alan Faneca.

8) Not sure what is wrong with Asante Samuel, but now that he has gotten beaten ('like a drum') in Chicago and Dallas, we have to start watching closely if this is the exception or that more inconsistency is the rule.

9) The titans and bills are the most overrated 4-0 teams imaginable.

10) If Jeff Fisher is coaching the Cowboys, they don't lose to the Skins.

11) The Skins, despite the big win this past week, are NOT going to make the playoffs. The Eagles, Giants and Cowboys are all making the playoffs.

12) The Eagles will kill the Skins this weekend.

13) How the Eagles lost to the Bears... unbelievable.

14) The NY Giants are the best team in the league right now. (re their weak schedule thus far..) You can only beat the teams you play. Was there EVER any doubt that your team was going to drive the field and score vs the Bengals to go up 23-20? Not in mine. And that is what the good teams do. Ultimatenyg was dead right with the Gilbride analysis. Gilbride will make the adjustments and figure it out, he is not great but he will get it corrected. Simply stated, the Giants are the most well-rounded team in the league right now. There might be some better defenses and a few better offenses, but the Giants have strong units in both categories.

Seattle Preview

1) Perhaps the biggest thing in the Giants' favor is the fact that BOTH teams are coming off a bye.
2) With Seattle 1-2, they will be a little bit more ornery and cannot afford to lose the game. How much urgency do the Giants bring to this game to counter the urgency of a team that will be severely punished for losing? In the team's recent past, the Giants have NOT had urgency at home.
3) Bobby Engram and Deion Branch will be back for this game.
4) Plaxico Burress will not.
5) The Giants won't be able to hear the crowd noise from Seattle, because it will dissipate somewhere over Montana.

Trying to make predictions in these games is very easy: if the Giants show up and play 60 minutes (Rams) they will win comfortably, if they play footsie w/o urgency (Bengals, second half vs Skins) they will make the game close and/or lose.

the Steeler connection

The Steelers were thin at RB, and then on Monday night Ray Lewis made a legal but nasty hit on rookie 1st round RB Rashard Mendenhall that put him out for the season. So now the Steelers are shopping for a RB, and guess who they have been looking at? Giants RB Danny Ware. Do not give this guy up in a trade without getting MORE than just a token draft pick. Ask for a 3rd rounder. Why?

1) The Steelers are desperate because their style of play is a ball-control offense that limits the number of times Roethlisberger throws the ball. Last season they were 3rd in the league in rushing attempts per game. This year they are still running the ball and they want to keep it that way. So make them pay.

2) We have 5 RBs if you count Droughns. Just because we CAN trade him does not mean we should just give him away. But it does give the Giants flexibility.

3) WE PLAY THEM LATER THIS SEASON. So only trade him away to this team if they are going to PAY UP. If the Steelers find another stooge to help them with a cheaper solution, so be it. But there is no reason for us to help this team to give us a loss later on... unless we know we are going to get MORE than what is fair.

The Ravens and Steelers

Did you miss the Ravens-Steelers game on Monday night? The Giants play both of these teams later this season; both will be a handful. They both play solid defense and make you earn your points. Neither has a dynamic offense... they get it done by having their defenses force you into mistakes and then shortening the field so that they can take advantage on a small porch. Watch the video for Flacco's poise and presence, as well as his rookie mistakes. He looks like he has game. Ray Lewis thinks his team is live because they can play on both sides of the ball. To me they look a year away, but since they play defense anything is possible. Just look at the Giants last year. In fact, it is Ray Lewis who sites Strahan when comparing his own crusade for a title.

The Ultimatenyg power ranking is in the header of the blog. Just look up at the top. ^

Power rankings are ridiculous. At the start of last year's playoffs, the Giants were 10th out of 12 remaining teams, and after the season was over and they had won the championship, they were ... FIFTH! Yes, 5th to start the new season. Well, with Dallas losing, the Giants having squeaked out the win at home vs Cincinnati a week earlier and another week going by idle, they are finally ranked #1 for the first time in recent memory. Let them be ranked last as long as they win the championship. We have said this before and will say it over and over... the NFL is not about beating Dallas that season or getting to the playoffs or drafting well or being competitive or anything else except one thing... WINNING CHAMPIONSHIPS. In the Super Bowl era they have THREE, that is how we keep score. That is the ultimatenyg power ranking system. See the top of the blog? Three titles. That appearance in Jan 2001's Super Bowl? As far as I am concerned, a nice year but no title, so NO CHAMPIONSHIP. Ask anyone from Buffalo if they would trade the 4 appearances in the Super Bowl for ONE title? Do you even have to guess the answer?!