PSL Choices

Reprinted from a comment made by ultimatenyg in the NY Times Fifth Down June 29th, 2008.
Yes, now that Wellington Mara is gone, the Giants fans are screwed. Some people do business with more loyalty than others. WE THE FANS ARE CUSTOMERS, nothing more, nothing less. If you do not like it, VOTE WITH YOUR FEET. I think what is going on here is that there are many people who want to teach the Maras and Tisches a lesson, leave, and have them get punished economically for their betrayal. IT IS NOT HAPPENING! And you KNOW THAT, namely that the waiting list is too long and there probably are many thousands more that are not even on the waiting list that will gladly pay for the PSL from someone in the secondary market once that gets going. Quit your crying and accept the fact that as customers you took ZERO risk. During World War II it was so bad that NFL franchises folded. The Eagles and Steelers became the Steagles for a few years. If the NFL were to implode you the fan can walk away with no financial burden. At the end of the day, loyalty shown or abandoned, these owners have the right to make any choice they want. If this decision to forego loyalty bites them on the behind decades or generations from now, so be it! For now we are all pissed because they are going to get away with it.

Your choices:
a) pay and keep going to games
b) pay and then resell the PSL in the secondary market for a PROFIT (how much pity do I have for you NOW?!!)
c) don’t pay, take the $ that would have been paid on seats AND/OR the PSL and use that to buy a home theatre so that you can watch the games at home in an upgrade
d) write angry letters to the Giants telling John Mara that his father is rolling in his grave
e) boycott the Giants
f) boycott football
g) buy a PSL in the secondary market from one of these disgruntled seasons tickets holders who chose (b) and finally get to go to games in the seats that these people only had because their grandfather had them
h) ADDENDUM (7/19)- trade down to a cheaper PSL from your grandfather's seat at the 50 yard line and get a cheaper one in the third tier

After the Baseball Strike of 1994, I was angry at greedy owners and greedy players and chose to boycott the sport by not going to games. 14 years and counting, and I have not given the whores of baseball a single dime. And now I watch (in vindicated amusement) as the steroids-deal-with-the-devil continues to erode the credibility of their sport. And yet I listen in horror on WFAN as these empassioned baseball addicts continue to support the de facto FRAUD! In the end baseball and football are still just a game and it is certainly just a business. I think John Mara has betrayed his father’s principles, but that does not make the situation any better. They made their choice, now we make ours.

Still clueless after all of these years

This story would be sad if it were not so pathetically embarrassing. Baseball is going down like the Titanic and they think it is the damn iceberg that caused the wreck!

WAKE UP!

Interest in baseball is eroding because:
a) we're tired of watching 38 pitching changes every inning
b) games last too long
c) the World Series ends at 1AM
d) steroids have made a mockery of the competition
e) you have to pay ridiculous prices to see overpaid athletes not run out ground balls
f) complete inequity between franchises
G) BUD SELIG IS TALKING TO FOX INSTEAD OF LISTENING TO THE FAN

We here at the Ultimatenyg NY Giants Football Blog will rip Roger Goodgrief just as soon as soon as we will rip Bud Sellout. Football, Baseball. The #1 important thing is to protect the quality of the game or else there is NO GAME. This is why we spent numerous posts bringing attention to fact that there is no free lunch in lengthening the NFL regular season. DILUTION is the cancer.

Reread the linked WSJ article at the top. FRIGHTENING! "Fox Sports spokeman Lou D'Ermilio confirmed network executives will head to Milwaukee next week to strategize with Commissioner Bud Selig about reversing the downward trends." Strategize?! Are these guys kidding?! THIS IS OUTRIGHT DENIAL. Go tell Fox that the commissioner needs to rebuild the integrity of the game. That he needs to cut out all of the timeouts and speed the game up so that it lasts 2:20 minutes instead of 3:00. Fox? They would have a canary. They are part of the (Bud) Sellout a long time ago. In order for baseball to reverse this sinking ship they will need to do something radical... true bonafide acceptance of a problem. The headline says it all- "mysterious ratings slump." Mysterious. Well, that is logical. How can two entities find a solution if THEY ARE THE PROBLEM?!

From Barry Bonds to Lawrence Taylor

As football fans, we watched in horror as baseball whored itself to steroids. With Bonds about to take out Aaron's HR record, feelings are mixed with excitement and resentment. Is Bonds entitled to the recognition as all-time HR king?

A little review first.

Everyone knows that steroids provide more strength. Len Dykstra hit ~5 or 6 HRs per year as a leadoff batter before hitting 19 in a contract year after allegedly taking steroids. (25M later, we never saw that number again.)

Enter 1994, when a player-led strike ravaged fan support and the World Series was lost. TV ratings and stadium attendance plummeted. Yes, there was a degraded state of pitching due to franchise expansion, juiced balls etc.. Home runs were rising and fans liked scoring.

Steroids provided something else too... increased visual acuity. Baseball chose to look the other way as McGuire and Sosa obliterated a record that stood for so many decades. Clearly something changed. Combine the power to spare of guys like Palmiero, McGuire and Sosa with better vision and you start getting eye popping results. As the story goes, Bonds watched in dismay and disgust as McGuire (and Sosa) was put on a pedestal. Why not him? He decided that if baseball was going to look the other way so that McGuire could save the sport from its 1994 horrors then he would partake as well.

First came the 2001 season when Bonds broke McGuire's record for HRs in a single season. But everyone knew that something was wrong when Bonds hit 45HRs in ~350 AtBats at the age of 40!

1986-2000 494 HRs 7456 AtBats.. 1 HR/15 AtBats
2001-2004 209 HRs 1642 AtBats.. 1 HR/8 AtBats

The human body simply does not get better from 37-40 than it was from 22-36.

So Bonds is turning 43 and he will break the record shortly. Do we applaud? Do we protest? Does MLB strike the record from the books if he used steroids? And what about guys like Palmiero and McGuire, who testified under oath and now have a stench of illegal performance enhancement?

WHAT ABOUT THE COMPLICITY OF MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL?

Lyle Alzado won a Super Bowl with the Raiders, and he admitted using steroids. Do we take that title away too? Guys like Byron Hunt would piss in Lawrence Taylor's cup so that LT would not fail his random drug tests for cocaine. LT would have been kicked out of football if he failed ONE more test. Does this mean that BOTH Super Bowls the Giants won should be negated? And what about the list of NFL players who used steroids? It is so lengthy and embarrassing that it would probably wreck 2-3 decades of winners. Two days ago we found out that an NBA referree was fixing games the past few seasons for the mob. Does this give enough evidence to turn back results?

Professional Sports has a lot of credibility to uphold. We can sit back as fans and judge Bonds all we want, but there is plenty of hypocrisy to go around. I am no fan of Bonds. I will not be watching when he breaks the record. But I have decided that it is a little too late to be judging him.

Pre Free Agency moves, and a little reality check from Phil Mushnick

1) Giants tell Butler to check out free agency and keep them posted.

2) The Browns, Texans and Cardinals are rumored to be interested in Derrick Ward, who is asking for $4M/yr when he turns free agent next week.

3) ESPN's rumor central has decent buzz.

4) You hear it on this New York Giants football blog all the time, but it is so much more than a lesson in the business world: CONFRONT THE BRUTAL FACTS. So how many of you are surprised when we learn that Shockey will be attending the New Orleans Saints' off-season program? Brees is the boss down there, and Shockey is finally getting the discipline he needed, something the Giants coaches/players were unable to give him.

4a) On a separate note, at the end of the previous link, they mention the Vilma signing possibility wrt the deadline and the Giants draft pick. If you recall, we mentioned this many moons ago that it would NEVER EVER happen because even if Vilma got all the snaps and needed to be re-signed, the Saints would simply post-date the deal and negate the clause. Shady, yes, but it is done all the time, and there is nothing you can do about it. We're getting the #2.

5) One of the core themes this blog highlights whenever given the opportunity: protect the integrity of the game or else you have no game. So we get a reminder from Phil Mushnick of the NY Post about what that means. He exposes the blatant hypocrisy of baseball in its simplest form. We are supposed to believe that Donald Fehr held the sport of baseball hostage, that the Union would never let Selig and the owners get steroids tested for in any contract. Bullbrown. BULLBROWN. Take the low road. Do you like the view?

It doesn't cost that much to go Il Mulino!

The Sports Industry would like to believe they are immune to the economic downturn, but even they have to confront the brutal facts: ticket sales and advertising dollars are slowing down. It is back to earth for every sport across the board.

In Baseball, headlines are in the form of Citi being challenged on its $400M sponsorship of the new NY Mets Stadium despite the company essentially being (all but in name) nationalized by the US Govt.

NASCAR is facing contraction in ticket sales (Daytona prices had to be dropped to sell out) and racing teams (many are merging to cut costs).

In football, this past weekend Ultimatenyg got the email from the NY Giants:

Dear New York Giants Wait-list Member,

As you may know, the Giants will be moving into a new state-of-the-art stadium scheduled to open for the 2010 season. The new stadium will provide Giants players, coaches and, most importantly, Giants fans with the first class facility, services and amenities they deserve.

Our records indicate that you have been a Giants wait-list member for a number of years. Please call us at (deleted) to update your contact information and to discuss your opportunity to become a Giants season ticket holder in the new stadium.

We look forward to hearing from you.

Very truly yours,
(deleted)

I never thought it would be this fast. I have been on the wait-list since 1998. I've got the big screen hdtv giving me plenty of football enjoyment. You think they are going to get me out there for the December night games and the flex-screwed schedule games and then ask me for a license fee on top of that? VOTE WITH YOUR FEET. Send a message with ONE SINGLE VOTE. The fact that I got the notification from the Giants surprises me, but then again it really should not. IT IS BROWNING AWFUL OUT THERE, FOLKS. This economic downturn is not a drill. This is the real deal. Many people are clueless to how real and severe this is, and for fans to shell out the money for this entertainment "right" when they can still go to individual games on a pay-as-you-go basis is nothing but a luxury.

Considering that fans in attendance at Giants games are in the NY Metro area and that Wall Street has imploded, why BID? The landscape has changed. Time for the Giants, who wore the risk the entire time (no crying, season's tickets holders who cannot afford this!), to feel it and make the players back off on salaries and give the fans something a little (how about a lot) less costly. VOTE WITH YOUR FEET. If you want to support the Giants owners and buy a license, go ahead. I would suspect that there will be enough people who will end up going for it. Let's look at what is still available: go to the NY Giants New Stadium site. Click on "Seat Allocation," tab to "Pricing and Seat Views." Before you look at the PSL prices, look at the ticket price column. There are essentially two groups of seats, those for $85-160/ticket, and those for $400,$500, and $700/ticket. Would it shock you that all the premium tickets are still available?!! Those "clubs" have corporate written all over them. For an extra four hundred to five hundred dollars per game they feed you! It doesn't cost that much to go to Il Mulino!! And let's not forget that the tailgating is one of the most important parts of going to the game. But wait, we cannot eat, we have to wait until we get inside to eat the Club food. Huh? That these seats are still available is not only not surprising, it is completely logical. Oh, and one more small minor item, those seats also come with the $7500, $12500 and $20000 personal seat license price tag. So if you are going to be rich enough to spend $20G's on a seat license, you go to Field 1 and pay $160 per game instead of the Coach's Club, were they basically charge you another $540 to get all you can eat.

There was one other location that was still available besides the 3 Club locations.. Field 3. While they only carry the $120/ticket price per game, they are imo the worst seats in the stadium. I do not like the end zone and the end zone on the first level also has no perspective once they get past the 30-40 yard line. Logical once again that these seats are still around. No thanks.

I am sure there are plenty of people still behind me who are chomping at the bit to buy. But the resale market is going to change now because by the time they are done there will not be the pent up demand BEHIND THE CURRENT BUYERS. So the secondary market in coming years (when, fyi, this economic downturn is worse than it is now... we are just getting started) is going to be where the real opportunities will be. Two years from now when that emotional purchase of a seat license needs cash, you will see the secondary market seek the TRUE level of what these licenses are worth. A chunk of people who were contacted and made commitments months ago are already regretting their purchases.

Summary: Sit back and let the secondary marketplace determine the value of a seat license. The economy is going nowhere for a while, so consider it a short hedge vs Gilbrown and the Giants to be on the sidelines in cash while this water seeks its level. The secondary market will offer you precise locations for what you want instead of these dregs of SuperPriced Club seats and 5K end-zone seats. And if the PSLs and ticket prices are not attractive, do the Ultimatenyg Seat Plan- 1 big screen hdtv for $1K and $0 for each game, $0 for parking, temperature controlled, no parking lot traffic after the game. With the money you save, you can go to Il Mulino, and I guarantee the food will be better.

PSL, Part 4

Part 1 discussed the email from the NY Giants, where we pieced together the fact that the "club" seats + Field 3 were no gift to Giants fans.

Part 2 discussed the Pat Hanlon response and the predictable flush of this offering through the waitlist as fast as possible so that they can market the PSLs to the corporates (read: fools who will pay $700/ticket instead of $160/ticket).

Part 3 highlighted the $300M Lehman bond financing fiasco, and the possibility/likelihood of this burden being passed onto PSL owners through higher ticket prices.

Yesterday I spoke with someone who made a commitment to purchase PSLs last August. He was given a brochure which had the following information:

Question-
"What if I am not satisfied with the location I am assigned?"

Answer-
"If you are not satisfied with your assigned PSL zone and/or seat location, your PSL money will be refunded and your seats will be offered to another Giants fan."

Given
(1) many seasons tickets holders like the person above made commitments before the economy started going into the tank
(2) ticket locations will not be disclosed to PSL buyers until ~Q1 2010

Conclusion
>>More than a few will use this opening to back out of their commitment.

Why so negative? Take a look at slide 64 and slide 65 of the linked presentation. This was done last September when the stock market (S&P 500 index) was ~1200. Today it is 765. If we go to 307, that is like Dow ~ 2920. Don't you get it? The Empire State Building was finished in the GREAT DEPRESSION and it took until after WWII to fill it. The New Giants Stadium will be finished in a depression. They may fill the stadium, but at what price? Of course people attended baseball games during the Great Depression, but they were not buying seat licenses and making commitments to buying packages of seasons tickets. And they didn't have television to bring in games for free. Connect the dots. This is a luxury item that will be cut out of people's budgets. MANY people's budgets. And many corporate budgets as well.

A Conversation with Arnie V.

Arnie V. is one of the charter members of the ultimatenyg crew, having been in the original email group that was the humble beginnings of this blog. Today he shares with us some of his thoughts about the Giants and the game he has watched for many decades.

Ultimatenyg: When did you start going to Giants games?

Arnie: "In 1939. I was 6 years old. I was at the game on December 7, 1941. Word spread through the crowd about Pearl Harbor. Back in those days the portable radios were too large (to bring) and all we heard from the announcer was calls for Admiral So and So to call his office and General So and So to call his office. We were playing the Brooklyn Dodgers, a franchise that would end up folding during the war. In fact, during the war the NFL consolidated and you had teams like the Steelers and the Eagles merged. They called them the 'Steagles.'"

You were at the Colts-Giants 1958 game also?

"Yes. But I did not find that loss as painful as Marvelous did. You see, for me, the Giants had to beat Cleveland not once but twice at the end of the season in order for us to get to the championship game. So it was not as bad for me because I felt that we already had a few pieces of good fortune just to get to that game."

Any color on the game itself?

"We had come back to take the lead and actually had the ball with a 3 pt. lead when Gifford was running with the ball on 3rd down. Gifford swears to this day that he made the first down. But on the play, Gino Marchetti broke his leg, and Gifford contends that the confusion led to a wrong spot. We had to kick, and the rest is history."

What was different about the game back then?

"For starters, without free agency, a player was with a team and that was it. Trades did not occur that often. The furor when Huff was traded to the Redskins was enormous. There was very little movement of players from one team to another. Second, obviously the players are bigger and faster today. Third, you had players that used to play both ways. Chuck Bednarik played for the Eagles- he was a Center on offense and a Middle Linebacker on defense. He once hit Gifford so hard that he knocked him out for that season and the next season."

How has the game changed which is positive?

"The popularity. When I was growing up, Baseball was #1 by a wide margin. College football was much more popular than the Pro game. Today Pro Football is the #1 sport and it benefits from all the attention and interest."

How has the game changed which is negative?

"The game is now all about the money. Ticket prices are high. The game is for TV and not for the people going to the game. We get cold weather games at night in winter. I am afraid to look at the schedule for what they are going to do to us now that we won the Super Bowl. We'll be on a lot at night again."

With Brett Favre having retired, there has been a lot of discussion about his place in history as one of the ten best quarterbacks of all time. Who are your 10 best QB's?

"Well, I read the blog with what Marvelous had and I agree with every one of his picks. I really cannot offer anyone else who I would have in there. The only person who might be in there is Sid Luckman, but I would keep the 10 that Marvelous had." (Ultimatenyg note for Marvelous' Top 10: Unitas, Montana, Elway, and thereafter in no order, Favre, Baugh, Graham, Bradshaw, Marino, Manning and Starr.)

Who was the best Giants player you ever saw?

"LT."

Anyone else who was close, or honorable mention?

"Gifford."

Best Giants team?

"The 1986 team that went on to win Super Bowl XXI was the best in my opinion. Everyone made such a big deal about the Patriots winning 18 straight, and they were 18-1. But that Giants team was 17-2 and they were the most dominant Giants team I ever saw. They lost the first game of the season to Dallas on Monday night and proceeded to go 17-1 in the remaining games, which is nearly identical to what the Patriots had done. And of course they won the Championship as well."

Best Giants play?

"The 'Miracle in the Desert' has to be it. It was the culmination of the unbelievable. I used to think the best play was that hit of Montana by Burt in the '86 playoffs (Giants 49 SF 3) that LT picked off and ran in for a TD, but it was eclipsed by the Manning to Tyree play."

So 2007 is the best year for you?

"Yes. This year was so unexpected. 2007-8 was the best year because the whole playoff run was one great win after another."

Most Painful loss?

"The biggest loss had to be the 49ers playoff loss in the 2002-3 season when we blew the 38-14 lead. The Jets loss in 1988 at the end of the season which kept us out of the playoffs was a close second."

Did you see/predict the old Eli becoming the new Eli?

"No, and certainly not that quick. I was a moderate Eli critic. The Draft Day trade for him seemed very expensive. I was not overly enthusiastic. But now you have to believe that he has the confidence to play at a higher level, so that the new Eli will be with us from now on. I do not mean that he won't have bad games anymore, but I think we will see better play from him."

You were one of the more bullish people for 2007. What do you look for in 2008?

"I would be surprised if we had a bad year. I am looking for a good winning season and the playoffs. Maybe deep playoffs."

Thanks Arnie.

March Madness

Frequent viewers of the blog know the deal I made with the Mrs. I got all NFL games and March Madness, she got everything else. It has been a very good deal for both of us. The baseball strike of 1994 made it even easier to boycott that sport.

The thing that the NFL and March Madness have in common?! -> Single elimination, no excuses. It creates great drama, and for us as fans we get to watch a tournament with hyperbole everywhere.

I admit I did not follow the college basketball season this year as closely I have in other years. That is mostly a function of how well my father's Illinois is doing. Illinois is garbage this year, we have them losing in the first round. My father knows a thing or two about college basketball. He used to be a scout for Illinois back in the day. His Final Four are: Wake Forest, Pitt, UNC and Memphis. Defense is his theme. Memphis over UNC in the final. With the randomness of the tournament, your selections are as good as any of his. Let us know who your Final Four are.

NY Giants hike ticket prices $7 for 2008

The New York Giants announced ticket prices for 2008 will go up by $7 per seat per game, or an 8% hike.

If this were the worst of it, the price alone would not really bother me. Baseball and the NBA rip off people for MUCH longer seasons where they don't show up for every game. Guys don't run out ground balls and only start playing basketball hard in Q4. Football is actually a value proposition. But where things start to slide is that the NFL used to hold these fall and winter outdoor events at 1PM (or NOON!) depending on which time zone your team was in. Now we see the creep to 4PM and 830PM starts for more ratings revenue. Look out for the Super Bowl champs to be playing to snoozing and bailing crowds at a late night venue near you. And get ready for the latest financial wizardry to soak you- the seat license. So in the grand scheme of things, this $7 hike is just an hors d'oeuvre.

Andy Mara? Personal Seat Licenses?

lol. it's capitalism, love it or leave it. I know... Wellington Mara is probably turning in his grave. I am trying to be realistic. We knew it was coming. For me, I wouldn't have even bothered building a new stadium- the old one works for me because I am not in demand of a luxury box. The bottomline is this is the marketplace. Check out the prices for PSL's being floated in Dallas. The owners can do anything they please. The fans can stay home, spend the grand (or 20 grand) on a home theatre and let someone else pony up the money.

Since the Baseball Strike of '94 I have not paid to see a single game (have gone to a total of 3 since then as a guest of others) and have only watched a total of ~20 games in 14 years on television after growing up with the sport. Have not watched a single pitch this season. May go to a Newark Bears game. Point is we all have choices. I think that the price of a football game (which represents 12.5% of the entire home season) is still fairly priced. Try spending 500 dollars going to an NBA regular season game where the players turn it on for only 1 quarter at the end. (I was once a courtside guest and was horrified by that one.)

There are other things that piss me off much more than these PSLs. Why do I get ads and far less video updates of other out of town games while AT THE STADIUM than I do at home in front of the television? What will s**k about the PSL's is if/when they do little to enhance the STADIUM EXPERIENCE. Will we have to pay $20 to park our car and have it still be a nightmare? Will getting out of the stadium parking lot still take 40 minutes?

Make your voice heard. I think Giants fans got tired of the flex scheduling and all the evening games in '06 and '07 and finally got some relief in the '08 schedule. If you really object to the PSLs, boycott them and then simply go to the stubhub/Giants tickets exchange and pay face. One of the original email guys from this blog paid $3800 for one ticket to the Super Bowl- he was in Glendale without a seat and was prepared to watch in his hotel room. Considering it was arguably the greatest game in Giants history, I am not sure if he overpaid.

What irks all of us is that if we all boycotted the PSL I am sure that the 15+ years of people on the waiting list (not to mention the corporates) would swoop in and devour the new availability. If it were not for having to go to football games at 8PM (at the end of December), I would be far more interested.

I will end the post with a little ditty from the Giants' press release: "...we hope and believe that you will be pleased with the options when we send more detailed information on the stadiumʼs PSL programs."

Rest for the Weary Interior Defensive Lineman

The Ultimatenyg Wife and Daughter made cookies for the New Years Party last night.

The rest will be a positive for the DL- an oppty for Tuck, Robbins and Cofield to get back to their early season energy with a few less bumps and bruises to contend with.

When we lost Osi in August, we knew that was a BIG hurdle to getting another title. Well, here we are. All it means is that the Giants need HELP. They need the offense to get more points. They need the kickoff coverage to help them with field position. Yes, they need the Safety to pickup the RB out of the checkdown, not Pierce. (Wonder agrees, says Pierce should not be on the field on 3rd and long.) They can commit a few less penalties. The Giants have enough to win it all, they just need to be a little tighter from here on in. Gilbride needs to get more than 21 points per game this offseason, it will NOT be enough unless guys like Robbins ARE BACK.

Like we have said before, IF ROBBINS IS BACK IN EARLY SEASON HEALTH, they'll be on Broadway on Feb 2nd. But when did an interior DL ever finish STRONGER as the season wore on? I am willing to bet that that extra week off for Cofield may have saved him in ways we do not know. Interior DL is like playing Catcher in Baseball. The length of the season is a major grind. The physical demands every game wear you down like no other position on the field. It is not a coicidence that these guys get hurt and eventually cannot play well enough with their injuries and must take a week off to heal.

We looked at the 4 Pro Bowl picks this season (Haynesworth, Jenkins, Ratliff and Williams), added in Cofield and Robbins, and looked at their combined tackles and sacks in the first 11 games and then looked at the same stats in the last 5 games of the season.

Statistic First11 Last5
Starts 100% 84%
Tackles/game 3.1 2.8
Sacks/game 0.52 0.08

So the number of tackles this squad made dropped off by 11% per game. Given that the number of starts also dropped by 16%, you can argue that the run-stopping stayed consistent. But the total number of sacks plummetted from 34 in the first 11 games to 2.5 in the last 5 games, a drop of 84%. These guys simply lose their wheels. ALL OF THEM. I did not inspect the assists/solo tackles ratio, but anecdotally it looked like there were less solos and more assists in the latter part of the season.

EIGHT FOUR PERCENT. THE SACKS DRIED UP. COMPLETELY! For Robbins, his last sack came on October 19th. For Defensive Ends, they may come in "bunches," but for Defensive Linemen, they come in the earlier part of the season. You can argue, but hey, he got injured! But injuries alone only would account for a 16% dropoff in production, which is almost exactly what we see from the number of tackles. And this dropoff in sacks was for all the probowlers, not just (the alternate Pro Bowler) Robbins.

One factor which cannot be ignored is that Robbins collected 5.5 sacks in his first 6 games vs. weaker competition with a winning percentage of 30.7%. In the last 10 games, the Giants and Robbins faced opponents with a winning percentage of 61.8%. So some of the dropoff in his personal performance may have been related to that variable.

The Giants pass rush misses the push from Robbins up the middle. All teams miss this, but it has been especially acute for the Giants. Even if Robbins does not get the sack, if he getting the forward push this will help Kiwanuka and Tuck because the QB will not be able to step up into the pocket. At this point in the season, all we need is the hurry, knockdown, push. Sacks just confirm the other three and generally cause change of possession.

Separately, if you have a site which tracks INDIVIDUAL HURRIES and KNOCKDOWNS for defensive players, pls let us know.

Flag Football

Roger Goodell has a very big problem. Football is a contact sport, in case any of you did not notice. I just reviewed the tape of that Tuck hit on Bollinger. (Q3 5:55 left, incomplete pass, 15 yard personal foul.) It is a sad state of affairs for the league when a referee can even THINK of calling a penalty on that play. Tuck's hit and subsequent penalty are part of a much bigger trend (CAMPAIGN?) in trying to rein in hits and injuries. You might as well whip out another 94 flags and place one on each player's hip so we can remove hitting altogether. This is quite simply madness and someone somewhere needs a wakeup call.

Rumors and theories are circulating more violently than any of these hits. Allegedly the league is trying to protect players as it expands the regular season to 17 games and reduces preseason to 3. If this is the cost, then someone needs to realize quickly that this is 6% forward to go -106% back.

Football is a violent sport. I grew up watching Dick Butkus and Deacon Jones. I just checked their weights, and the Sports Encyclopedia lists them as 245 lbs. and 272 lbs. respectively. Is the game bigger and faster? Yes, certainly at the line of scrimmage. But Strahan was slimmed down to 255 lbs. in his last year as a pro. He played most of his career at 275 lbs., but the point is that the game has not gotten that much bigger and faster. Tuck's hit on Bollinger looked softer than garden variety LT. Granted that no one ever saw anyone with the size and speed of Taylor when he came into the league, but the point here is that if the league is so worried about preserving the health of players, then DON'T have a 17th game!

The economy is in a recession. Television networks are releasing earnings- ad revenue is dropping. If the NFL teams and players experience a reduction in their revenue and salaries too, well, welcome to the rest of the world. Please don't become like baseball and manufacture synthetic growth at the cost of the product. The NFL is so much better than this. Or is it?

More regular season games

"More is better." So it goes for the conventional wisdom employed by children and insecure adults behaving like children.

The NFL is floating an idea for a May 2009 vote on increasing the number of regular season football games from 16 to 17 or 18.

Using very simple logic:
we like football
17 or 18 > 16
we like more football
ergo, more games is good

MISTAKE. Big mistake.

We have seen it countless number of times.. players late in the season nursing injuries. It is not a question of whether players are playing hurt, it is a question of how hurt they are. Asking teams and players to play more and lengthen the season is DILUTION. It means the fans will get more games with less quality. It means playoff games with the walking wounded.

What is different now from a decade ago? From a generation ago? Players are a lot bigger and they are slightly faster. Granted medicine is better, but bodies are not able to take the abuse these players get subjected to on a 14 game season, let alone a 16 game season, let alone a 16 game season with higher energy collisions, let alone a 17 game or an 18 game season with these higher energy collisions.

This is where the money gets in the way of the sport. More regular season games means more money. But what about the quality of EVERY game? How do you measure the quality of a sport where players are already getting rotated more and more? We spend countless hours/days/months analyzing the draft, searching for that star, but then the 11 star-ters won't be on the field because they are too hurt or need to be given less snaps to survive the season. We watched as warriors like Tuck and Robbins played hurt, significantly less effective by the end of the season. Let's throw another 1 or 2 games in there and see what we get. What we will get is dilution.

You have to optimize quality, not quantity. The NFL is trying to optimize quantity, their economics. We the fans will get more of the second stringers playing more plays, more games. Is this good football? More is not better. The NFL is going down the road of baseball, whoring themselves out to the television coverage, the tv contracts, whatever they can do to grow their sport. But when growth comes at the cost of diminishing the quality of the product, any business manager will tell you that you have to find another answer. More games is not the answer.

More expansion teams. More teams being allowed into the playoffs. These are all ways of generating more revenue, growing the sport. They dilute the quality of the player on the field. They dilute the importance of the regular season.

Historically speaking, the reason why there were 6 preseason games was because most football players were out of shape come July. Unless they were the star of the team, most played in relative anonymity, did not get paid enough and had to have second jobs in the offseason. As salaries increased, that need became less and less. Offseason training became a mainstay to competitiveness. 6 preseason games gave way to 4 preseason games, and nowadays even 4 are not needed (for most starters) because everyone is a fulltime athlete now who comes into camp in very good shape. But that does not mean that cutting away those four games gives the NFL more "space" for increasing the regular season. That logic does not wash because the reason why starters are playing less and less in the preseason is because the coaches need to protect them for regular season snaps. The number of regular season snaps a player takes cannot be increased indefinitely. In the 2008 offseason all we heard about were the effects of the Giants having to play 20 games instead of 16, how the recovery from that year was longer and they had less time during the offseason to charge up for the new year, something which can get dismissed by the fast start but cannot be dismissed by the weak ending.

16 games is plenty of competition to determine who gets to go to the playoffs. When was the last time you heard a player or coach say they needed to play more games to determine who was deserving? Try never. 16 games is more than enough competition.

Addendum: Just found this Peter King link on nfl.com, at the end of the interview he discusses the proposal to expand the number of games. Very sad that his ear to the ground says it will pass. The only selfish/silver lining to this one is that the Giants, with a loaded D-Line, would have a distinct advantage in a longer season. Ya think that maybe Reese understood this when he was stockpiling Canty and Bernard?!

Accorsi the poet

Accorsi uses the 2006 Cardinals' (83 win regular season) World Series as a metaphor for the Giants in simply emphasizing getting to the playoffs for keeping championship dreams alive. Until you tell me we are getting back both Petitgout and Strahan I will hear none of that fantasizing. Problem is that baseball is not football. There is no bye, with the rested and emotionally sky-high 1 or 2 seed waiting for you. And in all my years as a football fan, I can only recall two teams that won the Super Bowl that were not the best team that year. Dream all you want- I'll take a healthy Strahan and Petitgout before I start projecting.

Ultimatenyg Book Club: Moneyball

Moneyball by Michael Lewis

It has business. It has sports. It has the GM and the draft. This is as close as it comes to Ultimatenyg required reading. What more can you say when a General Manager turns the sports world upside down by listening to the statistics which work and transforming a 100+ year old pastime? The lessons for football are incredible. Pay attention to what works. Go for the steak in Round 2 instead of the sizzle of Round 1. Look at stats in college that will make a player stick in the pros. Respect the work of scouts but respect the stats that matter for a player's chances more. Ultimatenyg already mentioned how the 40 yard dash time is not statistically correlated with success. We found out that Jerry Reese looks at the 3-cone drill.

Baseball is radically different from football because it does not share revenue equally. But that does not mean the front office is less important. It simply means that if Billy Beane as GM has more money he is competing for championships and perpetual winners instead of trolling for good players and always watching them leave. The Eagles are trading down because they see the merit in Round 2. The experiment is two drafts (only one season) old, so the dividends will take years to be seen. But you can already see that the Eagles are getting lots of 2's 3's and 4's for their trouble. And they have two #1's next season. It is exasperating their fans, as this is the equivalent of being down by 4 and punting. But quietly the Eagles are beginning to load up. They are going to wreck that draft value chart, which I have already speculated is too top heavy. Read the links, see how second round draft picks do and you will begin to understand that you are better off trading down. That is the Moneyball conclusion Ultimatenyg has reached without a computer.

Flex this!

I just got word this evening that the NFL has moved the Eagles-Giants game to a 415PM start. That makes this the THIRD game moved out of an eight game schedule. RIDICULOUS. The NFL needs to put in a rule that only one of the 8 games can be moved around. The fans are being pushed around like pawns for more ad revenue just like in baseball. ENOUGH already.

17 postponements

Plaxi-shmoe delays his fate until September. Time is NOT on this guy's side. Sure, if he pulled a Keith Hamilton, kept delaying AND KEPT PLAYING while he delayed, he would be doing something that is effective. But the delays in this situation mean he does not necessarily play. Why do the Bears/Jets/Bucs sign him to a deal when he is a question mark with the court system and the league? It is challenging enough to get involved with a player that has a troubled past. Why get involved with a player that has a troubled present and/or future?

So for a moment, let's assume he would not return to football until after his legal issues are figured out. His value and his return to football drop with every postponement. You do not just turn things off and turn them back on at this professional level of athletic commitment. Michael Jordan went to baseball for ~1.5 years and it took another year after his return before he could play at the level he was at before he left. Plaxico Burress has been out of football since November of last season. Now he misses training camp and if he has to serve time it is 2010 before he sees football again. He would probably have an uneven 2010 season, 2011 he would return "to form." But here is the kicker- he would be THIRTY FOUR YEARS OLD BY THAT POINT in 2011. This guy does not have the time he thinks he has. He has just burned 5 months in postponements.

Let's also remember it takes time for ANY WR and ANY QB to get the rhythm and communication necessary to succeed. Not only is this guy going to have to get back to max football output, he is also going to have to learn a new playbook and a new QB. Peyton Manning to Marvin Harrison happens after many years of each player knowing exactly what is going on. The only way out for Burress would be if some team like the Bears were to do make the leap now, take future risks and have an experienced QB like Cutler shorten his communication curve. And then of course we are talking Burress, who would be in Florida in the offseason, not working on his timing with his new QB.

As the story goes, Burress would like to play for the Jets so that he can "stick it to the Giants." Too bad that this shmoe is too busy sticking it to himself first.

The Clemens Implosion

Nothing like a little Congressional Hearing on Clemen's alleged use of steroids to get the attention of the sports media in February. February has to be the slowest sports month of the year. Heck, I even watch the Westminster Dog Show to get over my Super Bowl hangover. The Beagle won by a nose!

So what does Clemens and his insane painting of himself into a nasty steriod corner have to do with a football blog? Easy- At least football is not the totally brainless baseball boob. Football is slowly whoring itself out to the mighty dollar, but with respect to steroids, it is doing as well as it can under the circumstances.

Football’s steroid policy is always going to have the obligatory player’s union interest in fighting it. The NFL has a 4 week suspension for your first offense. The second offense is 8 games. The third offense is the equivalent of a death sentence: a year’s suspension, and the player must ask for and obtain reinstatement from the commissioner before being allowed to play again. Given Goodell’s treatment of Pacman Jones, anyone going this far is not getting reinstated into the league.

This all seems somewhat coherent. As long as players have unions, the NFL is not going to be able to bounce anyone immediately/permanently. If I could make the rules, it would be first timers get a year and second timers are given a lifetime ban. And that ‘leniency’ for first time offenders is only because we need to protect everyone from a laboratory error, mislabeled sample, someone getting framed etc..

One area I would like to see the NFL get more consistent on is records and awards. If a player is found to have steroids, the previous 16 games of records/statistics should be wiped clean from any record book and the player should not be eligible for the next Pro Bowl or any other award consideration. Football detractors correctly point out that Shawne Merriman's inclusion in the Pro Bowl after serving a 4 game suspension is ludicrous. I read the league rules and as I understand it, this only happens with the third violation.

respect for the fan

In 1981 the avg baseball game took 2:33 mins. In 2007, it took 2:51 mins, actually 6 mins less than it did in 1995. But World Series games for the last 10 years last 37 mins longer than reg season games. And in this year's World Series the 3 games have taken an average of 3:50 mins to complete (have not watched one minute, kiss my arse!). The game ends at 12:20AM AVERAGE!

I bring this up because Larry Stern of the NBA is thinking about something radical- no timeouts in the last 3 minutes of a basketball game. Stern is waking up and other professional sports leagues better pay attention- when you continue to water down the product the fan eventually figures out that 100% of something is better than 0% of everything.

Goodell- are you paying attention? Do not sell the product to the devil- expanding playoffs for more than 12 teams, longer games, flex schedules, they are all gimmicks which harm the greatness of the game.

Mushnick's reality check

This morning Phil Mushnick, sports muckraker extraordinaire, takes batting practice against one of our favs, Bud Selig. For those of you new or passing through, that was a joke. Bud Selig has, from this blogger's not so always humble perch, singlehandedly ruined a spectacular professional sport and turned it into QVC.

Mushnick: "By now, I suppose, we're supposed to accept it, roll with it. Baseball's Selig Era cultivated a strain of shamelessness that trades common sense and common decency for, well, how much ya got? So, take it or leave it. And get over it.

I'm trying. But it's not taking."

And then Mushnick does what any self-respecting (football) fan would do- he takes a step back and sees that Goodell and the NFL are going down that same path:

"Incidentally, when the Giants and Jets don't sell out because of their PSL ticket extortions, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell will be forced to change the TV blackout rules rather than risk the New York market. And he'll claim that the bad economy is to blame. But Giants and Jets patrons have remained through previous hard times. The economy will be blamed for the NFL's greed."

Here, I believe Mushnick may err on a minor technicality.. The Giants (and Jets) will likely sell out. You just won't see all the seats filled. The Giants will find some corporate s**kers to pony up the dough for the remaining $20K PSLs and $700 seats that serve all you can eat. Oh, and how we wish that Mushnick will be right and somehow, some way, they all do not get sold. The embarrassment will be palpable. As it is, the Giants should be embarrassed that their hardcore fans passed up on PSLs in DROVES. And that is the reality, the perspective that Mushnick reminds us of today.

Just remember that games ending at midnight in winter time, 18 game seasons going through the month of February, PSLs, flex game schedules that hold ticket holder schedules hostage, cable pilfering.. these are just SOME of the many ways that the NFL is going to war to grab every last dollar from your wallet.

If you are reading this blog it means you are passionate about the Giants and NFL football. The voice of this blog, along with people like Mushnick, want to remind you that at a certain price, it is not worth it anymore. It was a very sad day when one of this blogger's best friends, a guy who I went to the 1986 NFC Championship with, could not stay up for the end of the Panther game this December. He had work (early enough) the next morning and smartly, that was his priority. There once was a time when games did not flex and December games were played in the sunshine at 1PM. Today, they know they'll get someone to buy the seat, so they put it on television to max out the dollar. Tomorrow? That is someone else's problem. Tomorrow they will have Selig-ed themselves out when people stop attending and even stop viewing. 500 saves? What's a save?